通货膨胀传导机制识别与通胀分型治理

Identification of inflation transmission mechanism and the classified governance of inflation

采用时变Granger因果检验明确中国历次典型通胀时期下的通货膨胀传导机制与通胀成本负担状况,并基于反事实模拟给出结构性通货膨胀的治理方略。研究结果显示:(1)2012年前中国的通货膨胀基本都是全局性通胀,而在2012年后,通货膨胀则具有典型的结构性特征;(2)治理全局性通胀只需盯住通胀源头和成本终端,而治理结构性通胀则应关注疏通通胀传导链条;(3)当下的通货紧缩是一轮由最终消费端发起的全局性通缩,但由于此轮通缩中只存在价格逆向传导链条,导致其仍有演化为结构性通缩的可能;(4)面对结构性通货紧缩,中央银行应采取适度盯住生产端价格指数的方式予以治理,这不仅有利于事前化解可能出现的产业链断裂风险,而且也能为后疫情时期的经济复苏营造良好的宏观环境和增长空间。

Based on the time-varying Granger causality test,this paper identifies the transmission mechanism as well as the cost burden of inflation in China’s previous typical inflation periods.Then using a counterfactual simulation,we further give an optimal governance strategy for structural inflation.The conclusions are as follows:First,the inflation before 2012 is basically global,while after 2012,inflation has typical structural characteristics.Second,the central bank just needs to target the source of inflation and the terminal of cost when curbing global inflation.As for the structural inflation,the policy authority should pay more attention to get through the inflation transmission chain.Third,this round of deflation is a typical global deflation caused by insufficient demand.However,considering only the reverse price transmission chain is smooth in this round of deflation,it is still possible for the deflation turning to a structural one.Fourth,facing with structural inflation,the central bank should properly target the production price index,which may not only help to eliminate the potential inflation risk in advance,but also create a beneficial macro environment and growth space for the economic recovery in the post-epidemic period.