碳减排政策的就业效应:来自碳交易试点的经验证据

Employment effect of carbon emission reduction policy:Empirical evidence from carbon trading pilot project

在理论探析碳减排政策影响就业的基础上,运用双重差分模型评估碳交易政策的就业效应。研究表明:碳交易政策的实施导致试点地区就业率显著提升,且碳交易政策能够加速劳动力城乡流动、行业转移以及性别转换,同时使得劳动力技能结构呈现“两头粗、中间细”的分布特征;碳交易政策的就业效应并不局限于试点地区一隅,亦能够对试点周边地区产生显著的负向溢出效应;试点地区劳动力增加来源包括“就地转换”“走的少”和“来的多”3个方面。进一步地,碳交易试点政策所诱发的就业率提升主要得益于产业结构高级化驱动的劳动力需求扩大和工资提升所驱动的劳动力供给增加。

Based on the theoretical analysis of the impact of carbon emission reduction policies on employment,this paper uses the spatial double difference model to evaluate the employment effect of carbon trading policies.The research shows that the implementation of carbon trading policy leads to a significant increase in the employment rate in the pilot areas,and the carbon trading policy can accelerate the urban-rural migration of labor force,industry transfer and gender transformation,and at the same time make the labor skill structure show the distribution characteristics of“thick at both ends and thin in the middle”.The employment effect of carbon trading policy is not limited to a corner of the pilot area,but also can have a significant negative spillover effect on the surrounding areas of the pilot area.The sources of labor force increase in the pilot areas include“local transformation”,“less walking”and“more coming”.Furthermore,the increase in employment rate induced by the carbon trading pilot policy mainly benefits from the expansion of labor demand driven by the upgrading of industrial structure and the increase in labor supply driven by wage increase.