中国的碳中和: 技术经济路径与政策选择

China’s carbon neutrality:Tech⁃economic pathways and policy options

2020年中国政府向国际社会承诺了2060年实现碳中和的战略目标,这将对我国中长期经济增长模式、能源转型和碳排放路径产生深远的影响.在此背景下,本文构建了技术扩展的能源-经济-环境系统集成模型,综合评估了我国实现2060年碳中和目标的能源技术路径和经济可行性,并给出了相应的政策选择.研究发现了2030年的非化石能源发展目标与碳中和目标的高度一致性,且碳中和要求高排放的“平台期”大幅缩短.单纯的碳价或非化石能源补贴政策均不足以支持碳中和目标的如期达成,而退煤脱油机制下碳价干预与负排放技术的发展激励为这一目标的实现提供了可行的政策选项.碳中和下,太阳能和风能成为能源系统的主力,其合计供能比重需达到53%,其次是水电和装配CCS技术的生物质能,分别占比13.7%和12.5%.研究进一步指出,经济代价不应该成为我国推进碳中和目标达成的主要顾虑,在“对勾”型政策成本轨迹下,预估的累积经济成本不超过相应GDP的1.9%,且在政策目标达成之前即可享受到碳中和带来的经济发展红利.

China has committed to neutralize its carbon emissions in 2060,which has profound effects on fu⁃ture economic growth mode,energy transition and emission pathways.On this basis,an integrated energy⁃e⁃conomy⁃environment system model is developed by enriching the energy technology details.It attempts to as⁃sess the energy technological pathways of achieving the carbon⁃neutral goal and its economic feasibility.The study reveals a high degree of consistency between the non⁃fossil energy development goal in 2030 and the car⁃bon neutrality goal.Additionally,the plateau period with high emissions required for carbon neutrality is greatly shortened.Further,neither carbon pricing alone nor carbon pricing combined with subsidies for non⁃fossil fuel energies is sufficient to achieve carbon neutrality on time.However,carbon pricing combined with subsidy for negative emission technologies under a mechanism of coal and oil reduction provides a feasible op⁃tion for achieving this goal.In this circumstance,PV solar and wind power dominate the energy system,joint⁃ly contributing 53%of primary energy consumption.Following them are hydro power and biomass with carbon capture and storage,accounting for 13.7%and 12.5%,respectively.This study also emphasizes that eco⁃nomic cost should not be the primary concern in advancing China’s carbon⁃neutral goals.With a hook⁃shaped path of policy cost,the estimated cumulative economic cost could be less than 1.9%,and China could gain the economic growth dividend associated with carbon neutrality before 2050.