现代化进程中的中国工业:发展逻辑、现实条件与政策取向

China's Industry in the Process of Modernization:Logic of Development,Realistic Conditions and Policy Orientation

成功跨越“中等收入陷阱”的经济体在向高收入迈进阶段,工业发展表现出相似的结构转变特征,具体包括:工业占比较为稳定,经济结构持续优化;产业能力持续提升,创新驱动增长。但是,后发国家跨越“中等收入陷阱”也面临多方面挑战。中国完整的工业体系、相对合理的产业结构、日益增强的自主创新能力、持续释放和升级的内需、更高的对外开放水平,源源不断地为工业发展注入活力,同时也奠定了把握新科技革命和产业变革历史机遇的基础条件,有能力有条件推进工业行稳致远。迈向现代化进程中,中国工业面临的外部环境发生了重大变化,既要高度重视严峻性、复杂性、不确定性上升的影响,也要主动布局,积极应对世界大变局下的多重挑战,把握好全球数字化绿色化转型带来的新机遇。要深层次改革与高水平开放并举,以进促稳,先立后破,增强政策协同性一致性,坚持创新引领现代化产业体系建设,加快推进新型工业化,培育壮大新质生产力。

The economies that have successfully stridden over the“middle-income trap”have shown similar characteristics of structural transformation:The industrial structure of those countries have achieved a shift from labor-intensive to capital-and technology-intensive,upgraded from laborintensive links in the global value chain to product design and development,and realized upgrading in high-end links such as intermediate product manufacturing,thereby maintaining the industrial and manufacturing structures at a relatively stable level.Meanwhile,these successful economies have shifted from the original trade model of large import and export to relying more on domestic market,and have actively engaged in outward foreign direct investment(OFDI)while fully utilizing foreign direct investment(FDI).The“middle-income trap”is essentially an industrial capability trap or a technological innovation trap.Enhancing industrial capabilities and independent innovation capabilities has been a key factor for middle-income economies to respond to the risks and challenges of the“middle-income trap”,and seizing the strategic opportunities of technological revolution and industrial transformation have played a crucial role.However,latecomer countries also face various challenges in overcoming the middle-income trap.China has become a powerful industrial country and processed the necessary industrial foundation to overcome the middle-income trap.With its extensive industrial scale,comprehensive system,and continuous upgrading of industrial structure,China's domestic demand still holds immense growth potential that can effectively drive industrial modernization.By pursuing high-quality opening up,China has avoided being confined to“subordinate”or“low-end”positions in global division of labor.Furthermore,China's substantial investment and output in R&D,coupled with a well-developed technology R&D system,consistently make it among the world's top performers.However,we must recognize that China's industry is facing challenges in achieving high-quality development,such as overcapacity in certain sectors and associated risks remaining prevalent while significant gaps existing in basic and frontier technologies compared with developed countries.Recent years have also witnessed insufficient investments in high-tech industries along with limited entrepreneurial activities and less confidence in overall development.As China enters a new era of high-quality development,the external environment has been undergoing significant changes.The intensifying competition between major countries,coupled with frequent geopolitical conflicts,have triggered deep adjustments in the international production system and accelerated restructuring of global industrial chains,which leads to much concern on economic security issues worldwide.Overall,the new round of technological revolution and global carbon neutrality are not only challenges but also important opportunities for China to leverage the systematic advantages to enter new tracks in the industries of the future and form new competitive advantages.In recent years,China has made positive progress in digital transformation and green development,resulting in speedily increasing exports of new advantageous products,such as electric vehicles,lithium-ion batteries,and photovoltaic products.Facing a more complex,severe,and uncertain external environment,China's industrial system has shown stronger resilience.To better deal with the multiple challenges coursed by rising risks in the current global situation,China needs to carry out deepseated reforms together with high-level opening-up,enhance policy coordination and consistency,adhere to innovation leading the construction of a modern industrial system,accelerate the promotion of new industrialization and cultivate and develop new quality productivity.It can be expected that moving towards the process of modernization,China will rely on a more complete and resilient industrial system,a more dynamic innovation ecosystem and its unique institutional advantages to achieve high-quality industrial development and promote global sharing of China's industrialization achievements.