“十五五”时期世界经济增长态势分析

An Analysis of the Growth Trend of the World Economy During the‘15th Five-Year Plan'

上世纪90年代以来,世界经济发展呈现出速度分段下降、格局“东升西降”态势。科技进步、经贸投资、生产分工、宏观政策、地缘博弈是影响过去一个时期世界经济走势的主要因素,也是决定未来一个时期世界经济增速的关键变量。总体看,“十五五”时期世界经济仍将处于国际金融危机后深度调整期、新冠肺炎疫情后逐步恢复期、不稳定性不确定性因素明显增多期“三期叠加”阶段,较难摆脱复苏不稳、苦乐不均、动力不足、信心不强态势,低增长和有效需求不足将成为新常态。为此,中国一方面要继续坚定不移地办好自己的事情,增强应对外部冲击的底气和能力;另一方面要坚持胸怀天下,以自身的高质量发展为世界经济增长作出贡献。

Since the 1990s,world economy development has been characterized by a decline in speed and a pattern of‘rising in the East and declining in the West'.Scientific and technological progress,trade and investment,division of labor,macroeconomic policies and geopolitical games are the main factors affecting the trend of the world economy in the past period,and they are also the key variables determining the growth rate of the world economy in the coming period.On the whole,the world economy in the‘15th Five-Year Plan period will still be in a period of deep adjustment after the international financial crisis,gradual recovery period after the new coronary pneumonia epidemic,and an obvious increase period in the number of factors of instability and uncertainty,forming a‘triple overlay'stage.It is more difficult to get rid of the unstable,bitersweet recovery,insufficient momentum and weak confidence,and low growth and insufficient effective demand will become the new normal.In this regard,China should,on the one hand,continue to do its own thing unswervingly and enhance its confidence and ability to cope with external shocks;on the other hand,it should be mindful of the world and contribute to the growth of the world economy with its own high-quality development.