基于层次分析法的胶东半岛海岸带地质灾害风险评估与区划

Risk assessment of coastal geological hazards in Jiaodong peninsula,China based on analytic hierarchy process

海岸带是受到全球生态环境影响的脆弱带,对全球变化的反应极为敏感。由于气候环境的改变和地下水的过度开采,胶东半岛海岸侵蚀和海水入侵等海岸带地质灾害逐渐成为破坏这一地区经济持续发展和人民财产安全的严重威胁。本文基于胶东半岛海岸带地质灾害的相关资料进行定性分析,确定该区域主要海岸带地质灾害为海水入侵和海岸侵蚀,并在此基础上选取风险评价指标,建立风险评价指标体系,对胶东半岛海水入侵和海岸侵蚀进行风险评估,随后运用GIS分别对胶东半岛的海水入侵和海岸侵蚀进行风险区划。研究结果表明,胶东半岛的海水入侵综合风险等级按高到低排序为青岛市、威海市、烟台南、烟台北;海岸侵蚀综合风险等级按高到低排序为青岛市、烟台北、威海市、烟台南。据此,本文提出在威海市和烟台市合理开采地下水,在烟台北保护滨海砂矿和植被并移沙造滩,在青岛市加固海岸防御工程、重视灾前投入等风险防范建议。

The coastal zone is a fragile area affected by the global ecological environment and is extremely sensitive to global changes.Due to the change of climate environment and the excessive exploitation of groundwater,coastal geological hazards such as coastal erosion and seawater intrusion in Jiaodong peninsula have gradually become a serious threat to the sustainable economic development and people's property security in this region.In this paper,based on the relevant data of coastal geological hazards in the coastal zone of Jiaodong peninsula,the qualitative analysis was carried out to determine that the main coastal geological hazards in this region were seawater intrusion and coastal erosion.On this basis,the risk assessment index system was established by selecting representative indicators.The quantitative risk assessment and GIS-based zoning of seawater intrusion and coastal erosion in Jiaodong peninsula were then carried out.The results showed that the comprehensive risk level of seawater intrusion in Jiaodong peninsula was ranked from high to low as Qingdao,Weihai,south Yantai and north Yantai.The comprehensive risk level of coastal erosion was ranked from high to low as Qingdao,north Yantai,Weihai and south Yantai.Accordingly,this paper proposed to rationally exploit groundwater in Weihai city and Yantai city,to protect coastal sand mines and vegetation in north Yantai and to move sand making beaches,to strengthen coastal defense projects in Qingdao and to pay attention to the predisaster investment.