老年髋关节置换患者术中低温风险预测模型的构建

Construction of intraoperative hypothermia risk prediction model for elderly total hip arthroplasty patients

目的:构建老年髋关节置换术(THA)术中低体温风险预测模型。方法:纳入2019年1月至2022年5月行髋关节置换手术的252例老年患者的资料,分析发生低温的危险因素,构建列线图预测模型及验证该模型的临床适用性。结果:Logistic回归分析显示,麻醉时间、手术时间、手术室温度、术中输液、手术出血是老年THA术中低体温的独立影响因素(P<0.05)。列线图预测模型的AUC为0.888(95%CI:0.849~0.928),一致性结果与理想的预测能力较为接近,临床决策曲线显示阈值在0.15~0.95时,临床可获益。结论:本研究构建的模型能够准确预测老年髋关节置换患者术中低体温,可为临床决策提供参考。

Objective:A hypothermia risk prediction model in elderly total hip arthroplasty(THA)was constructed.Methods:The data of 252 elderly patients who underwent hip replacement surgery from January 2019 to May 2022 were included,and the risk factors for hypothermia were analyzed,and a nomogram prediction model was constructed and validated.Results:Logistic regression analysis showed that anesthesia time,operation time,operating room ambient temperature,intraoperative infusion,and surgical bleeding were independent influencing factors of intraoperative hypothermia in elderly people with THA(P<0.05).The AUC of the nomogram prediction model is 0.888(95%CI:0.849~0.928),and the consistency results are close to the ideal predictive ability,and the clinical decision curve shows that the threshold is 0.15~0.95,which can benefit clinically.Conclusion:The model constructed in this study can accurately predict intraoperative hypothermia in elderly patients with total hip arthroplasty,which can provide reference for clinical decision-making.