基于STIRPAT模型的山东省居住建筑运行碳排放影响因素研究

Research on Influencing Factors of Carbon Emission from Residential Building Operation in Shandong Province Based on STIRPAT Model

为有效实施建筑领域节能减排,实现双碳目标,以2005-2021年山东省居住建筑运行阶段碳排放数据为研究对象,利用STIRPAT模型对人口数量、人均GDP、人均消费支出、人均可支配收入、城镇化水平、居住建筑面积、单位建筑面积能耗、能源消耗强度和能源结构等影响碳排放的因素进行岭回归分析。结果表明:人口数量、人均GDP、人均消费支出、人均可支配收入、城镇化水平、居住建筑面积、单位建筑面积能耗和能源消耗强度等的增加会促使碳排放量的增加,但能源结构的增加会抑制碳排放量的增加,其中人口数量是影响碳排放的关键因素。据此提出山东省居住建筑节能减排的建议和对策。

In order to effectively implement energy conservation and emission reduction in the building sector and achieve the goal of double carbon,carbon emission data of residential buildings in Shandong Province during 2005-2021 were taken as the research object.STIRPAT model was used to analyze the factors affecting carbon emission,such as population size,per capita GDP,per capita consumption expenditure,per capita disposable income,urbanization level,residential floor area,energy consumption per unit floor area,energy consumption intensity and energy structure.The results show that the increase of population size,per capita GDP,per capita consumption expenditure,per capita disposable income,urbanization level,residential floor area,energy consumption per unit floor area and energy consumption intensity will promote the increase of carbon emissions,but the increase of energy structure will inhibit the increase of carbon emissions,and population size is the key factor affecting carbon emissions.Accordingly,suggestions and countermeasures for energy conservation and emission reduction of residential buildings in Shandong Province are put forward.