气候风险情景分析与压力测试概述:基础概念与监管框架

Overview of Climate Risk Scenario Analysis and StressTesting:Basic Concepts and Regulatory Frameworks

未雨绸缪地防范气候相关金融风险的前提是能够准确识别与评估气候风险,气候风险情景分析和压力测试则恰如其分地成为有效工具之一。经过主要国际组织和部分前瞻性金融监管机构的积极实践,气候风险情景分析与压力测试正逐渐被纳入宏微观审慎监管评估工具箱之中。宏观上,监管机构定期召集金融机构开展系统性气候风险压力测试,并积极引导金融机构建立气候风险管理框架;微观上,监管机构鼓励金融机构适时地自行测试,可率先从定性的描述性情景分析开始,逐步过渡至定量的压力测试。我国将气候相关风险纳入宏观审慎监管框架的趋势日渐明朗,监管机构也积极推动气候风险情景分析和压力测试的开展,未来定期组织测试的概率很大。另外,虽然已有形式为统一化测试框架,但未来要求金融机构自行开展测试也不无可能。

The prerequisite for proactively preventing climate-related financial risks is the ability to accurately identify and assess them,and climate risk scenario analysis and stress testing have appropriately become one of the effective tools.Through the active practice of major international organizations and some forward-looking financial regulatory authorities,climate risk scenario analysis and stress testing are gradually being integrated into the macro and micro prudential regulatory assessment toolkit.On the macro level,regulatory authorities periodically convene financial institutions to conduct systemic climate risk stress testing and actively guide these institutions in establishing climate risk management frameworks.On the micro level,regulatory authorities encourage financial institutions to conduct their own tests in a timely manner,starting with qualitative and descriptive scenario analyses,and gradually transitioning to quantitative stress testing.The trend of incorporating climate-related risks into China's macro prudential regulatory framework is becoming increasingly clear,with regulatory authorities actively promoting the implementation of climate risk scenario analysis and stress testing.The likelihood of regularly organizing such tests in the future is high.Moreover,while there is currently no unified testing framework in place,it is not out of the question that financial institutions may be required to conduct their own tests in the future.