“两山”理念下海南省森林固碳量与影响因素分析

Forest Carbon Sequestration and its Influencing Factors in Hainan Province under the“Two Mountains”Theory

基于2002—2022年林业数据测算海南省近20年森林固碳量,并利用VAR模型分析影响固碳量增长的因素,最后预测未来30年海南省森林固碳量数据。结果表明:近20年海南省的森林固碳量总体呈现稳定增长趋势,平均增速为5.4%;各影响因素中林业总产值与林业从业人员对海南省森林固碳量的变化产生主要影响;预测结果显示未来海南省森林固碳量增长进入稳定时期,增速放缓。为此,海南省林业固碳能力的提高需要健全林业经济发展机制、加强森林科学培育管理能力、提高林业信息化管理水平。

⑴Background——Due to its strong carbon sequestration ability,the forest ecosystem plays an important role in mitigating the increasingly severe global climate change.Practicing the“Two Mountains”theory,focusing on the goal of carbon neutrality and carbon peak,improving forest carbon sinks is an important path for green development.Therefore,calculating the amount of forest carbon sequestration in Hainan Province,clarifying the level of forest carbon sinks in Hainan Province,and analyzing the forest carbon sinks capacity in Hainan Province in the future can provide a theoretical basis for improving the level of green development in Hainan Province.⑵Methods——Based on the forestry data from 2002 to 2022,the forest carbon sequestration in Hainan Province in the past 20 years was calculated by the stock volume expansion method.Then,an index system of three influencing factors including natural factors,economic factors and management factors was established,and the VAR model was used to analyze how these indexes affected the forest carbon sequestration capacity in Hainan Province.Finally,the grey prediction model was used to analyze the changes of carbon sequestration level in Hainan Province in the future.⑶Results——First,the level of forest carbon sequestration in Hainan Province showed an increasing trend on the whole,in which the carbon sequestration in understory plants was the lowest,and the carbon sequestration in forestland was the highest.The average annual growth rate of carbon sequestration in the past 20 years was 5.4%,and the average growth rate reached 7.8%from 2010 to 2015.This was mainly due to the continuous introduction of forest protection policies in Hainan province.Second,forestry economic factors and management factors had a more obvious long-term impact on the changes of carbon sequestration level.Overall,human activities are gradually having a greater impact on the changes in forest carbon sequestration.The proportion of forest carbon sequestration increased on the basis of the original forests decreased from 100%to 74.582%,and economic factors and management factors would gradually play a more obvious role in the long run,among which the factor of the total output value of forestry reached 10.474%,and the factor of forestry practitioners reached 8.266%,while the impact of natural factors was relatively small.Third,forest carbon sequestration in Hainan Province will increase steadily in the future,but the growth rate will slow down,with an average growth rate of 3.02%.This is because the current forest coverage rate and forest quality in Hainan Province are relatively high,and the land area of Hainan Island is small,so it is difficult to increase the carbon storage level by expanding the forest area only.⑷Conclusions and Discussions——First,improve the forestry circular economy development mechanism.With the development of forestry economy,it is necessary to develop forestry resources within the scope of forest ecological environment in Hainan Province.At the same time,it is necessary to develop and extend the processing chain of forestry industry and forestry-related industries to promote the development of forestry economy.Second,strengthen the forests scientific cultivation,improve the forests management ability and reduce the damage of the original forests environment.Only by strengthening the whole cycle management of forests and adhering to the concept of moderate forests management and scientific forests cultivation can the level of forest carbon sequestration be effectively and stably improved.Third,improve the level of forestry information management.Construct a modern information platform for forestry management,monitor and evaluate forest data accurately and intelligently,and improve the informatization level of forestry managers.