基于随机森林回归模型的集体经营性建设用地土地级别质量影响因素实证分析

Empirical Analysis of Factors Influencing the Quality of Land Grade for Collective Management Construction Land Based on Random Forest Regression Model

利用南昌市本级集体建设用地定级与基准地价评估的项目,获取南昌市本级辖区258个行政村的调研数据,并运用随机森林回归模型分析农村集体经营性建设用地土地级别质量的影响因素及各类因素的重要性程度,同时验证模型的准确率。结果表明:模型的准确率和决定系数(R^(2))均大于80%,且五折交叉验证结果的准确率也大于80%。因子层重要性全域范围内是宏观区位影响度、繁华程度、产业集聚效应、交通条件和区域规划因子比基础设施条件和环境条件因子更大;其中,城区受产业集聚效应因子影响最大,而城郊受交通规划条件因子影响最大,且两者受繁华程度和交通条件因子影响也较大。因素层重要性全域范围内是宏观区位影响度最大,其次是繁华程度、交通条件、产业集聚效应和区域规划,而其余因素影响相对较小;其中,城区受产业集聚效应影响最大,而城郊受区域规划条件影响最大,其次繁华程度和交通条件也对土地级别质量有较大影响,而宏观区位影响度的影响相对减小。

Using the project of grading and benchmark land price evaluation of collective construction land at the local level in Nanchang City,we obtained survey data from 258 administrative villages in the jurisdiction of Nanchang City,and random forest regression model was used to analyze the influencing factors of land quality for rural collective commercial construction land and the degree of importance of various factors,while also verifying the accuracy of the model.The results showed that the model accuracy and decision coefficient(R^(2))were greater than 80%,and the accuracy of the 5-fold cross validation results was also greater than 80%.The overall importance of factor layer was that macro location influence degree,prosperity level,industrial agglomeration effect,traffic conditions and regional planning factors were greater than infrastructure conditions and environmental conditions.Among them,the urban area was most affected by the industrial agglomeration effect factor,while the suburban area was most affected by the traffic planning condition factor,and both were greatly affected by the prosperity degree and traffic condition factor.The overall importance of the factors layer was that macro location influence degree had the greatest influence,followed by bustling degree,traffic conditions,industrial agglomeration effect and regional planning,while the remaining factors had relatively less influence.Among them,the urban area was most affected by the industrial agglomeration effect,while the suburban area was the most affected by the regional planning conditions.Secondly,the prosperity degree and traffic conditions also had a greater impact on the quality,while the macro location influence degree was relatively reduced.