农村数字化发展能否提升林业经济韧性——基于30个省域面板数据的实证检验

Can the Rural Digital Development Improve Forestry Economic Resilience:An Empirical Evidence Based on Panel Data of 30 Provinces

[目的]研究农村数字化发展提升林业经济韧性的作用机制,为推动形成林业可持续发展新格局提供科学依据。[方法]基于2011-2020年中国30个省(区、市)面板数据,构建多维度指标体系评估农村数字化发展水平和林业经济韧性水平,采用固定效应模型、机制检验模型、面板门槛模型和空间杜宾模型等检验农村数字化发展水平和林业经济韧性水平之间的因果关系和作用机制。[结果]1)农村数字化发展能够提升林业经济韧性,提高劳动力资源生产率和土地资源生产率是农村数字化发展影响林业经济韧性的主要路径,农村数字化发展提升林业经济韧性效应存在显著区域异质性,东部地区效应更强且边际效益递增,林业经济韧性水平越高,农村数字化发展的提升效应越强。2)在不同农村数字化发展水平下,农村数字化发展对林业经济韧性的影响呈非线性特征,表现为前期极强的数字红利、中期面临数字化瓶颈、后期效益递增。3)农村数字化发展影响林业经济韧性存在门槛效应,当农村数字化发展水平低于第一个门槛时,农村数字化发展对林业经济韧性的影响显著为正;跨越第一个阈值后,随着农村数字化发展水平提升呈现边际收益递减趋势;也存在显著的空间溢出效应,直接影响和间接影响均显著为正。4)除农村数字化发展水平外,经济发展水平、产业结构、降水量对林业经济韧性水平也具有显著正向影响。[结论]农村数字化发展能够有效提升林业经济韧性,应充分发挥数字技术提高劳动力资源生产率和土地资源生产率的作用,大力发展农村数字经济,注重分阶段动态化和差异化提升数字赋能林业经济韧性,与加强经济基础支撑、优化产业结构和借助自然禀赋协同提升林业经济韧性。

【Objective】This study aims to investigate the mechanisms through which rural digital development improves forestry economic resilience,providing a scientific basis for promoting the formation of a new pattern of sustainable forestry development.【Method】Drawing upon panel data from 30 provinces(autonomous regions,municipalities)in China spanning the period 2011 to 2020,we constructed quantified measures of rural digital development and an evaluation index system for forestry economic resilience.Employing various statistical models including fixed effect,mechanism testing,panel threshold effect and spatial Dubin models,we analyzed the relationship between rural digital development and forestry economic resilience.【Result】1)Rural digital development is found to positively influence forestry economic resilience by enhancing productivity in both labor and land factors.These results remains robust even after a series of robustness tests and endogenous treatments.Significant regional differences exist in the impact of rural digital development,with stronger effects observed in the eastern region of China.Moreover,the enhancing effect of rural digital development on forestry economic resilience strengthens as the resilience level increases.2)The relationship between rural digital development and forestry economic resilience exhibits nonlinear characteristics,characterized by an initial strong“digital dividend”,followed by a“digital bottleneck”in the middle stage,and ultimately yielding increasing benefits in the later stage.3)There is a threshold effect of rural digital development on forestry economic resilience.When the level of digital development is below the first threshold,the impact on forestry economic resilience is significantly positive.However,as the level of digital development increases beyond the first threshold,the marginal returns diminish.Significant spatial spillover effects between rural digital development and forestry economic resilience are identified,with both direct and indirect effects being positive.4)In addition to the level of rural digital development,economic development,industrial structure,and precipitation also wield significant positive effects on forestry economic resilience.【Conclusion】Rural digital development stands as a potent means to effectively enhance forestry economic resilience.Accordingly,we advocate for leveraging digital technology to optimize labor and land resource allocation,fostering robust growth in the rural digital economy,and enhancing forestry economic resilience through phased,dynamic,and differentiated strategies.Concurrently,efforts to fortify economic support,streamline industrial structures,and leverage natural endowments should be intensified to further bolster forestry economic resilience.