我国海雾监测预报业务现状及未来展望

The Current Status and Future Perspectives of Sea Fog Monitoring and Forecasting in China

海雾因海面低层大气中水蒸气凝结而成,是海上一种常见的天气现象。海雾发生时能见度较低,对港口作业、海上航运、渔业及海上油气生产等造成严重影响。我国近海发生的船舶碰撞或触礁事故中,有50%~70%与海雾有关。本文回顾了近20年我国在海雾监测预报业务方面的进展,分析了地基海雾观测、卫星遥感、人工智能应用及海雾数值预报等对国省海雾监测预报业务的支撑,探讨了海雾在精细能见度监测预报及检验评估等方面存在的问题,并从开展海雾多平台协同观测,加强海雾机理、数值预报模式及客观预报方法研究和应用等角度对未来海雾业务发展提出了若干展望。

Sea fog is one kind of common weather phenomena.The low visibility brought by the sea fog is due to water vapor condensation near sea surface,which may bring adverse effects on many areas,such as port operation,marine transportation,fishing and oil/gas production.Statistics show that 50%to 70%of ship collisions or reef-hitting accidents in China’s coastal waters are related to sea fog.In this paper,the main achievements on sea fog monitoring and forecasting in China during the past 20 years are reviewed.It also analyzes the operational support of ground-based sea fog observations,satellite remote sensing,artificial intelligence applications and numerical prediction of sea fog on the national and provincial sea fog monitoring and forecasting.In addition,the shortcomings and weaknesses on the fine visibility monitoring,forecasting and evaluation are discussed.The future perspectives of sea fog operational forecast are put forward concerning sea fog multiple platform collaborative observations,sea fog evolution mechanisms,numerical weather prediction models and objective forecast methods.