观测系统模拟试验(OSSE)及其在海洋气象中的应用

Observing System Simulation Experiment(OSSE)and Its Application in Marine Meteorology

与陆地相比,广阔的海洋上常规气象观测相对稀疏,且海上观测成本较高,制约了海洋气象学科的发展。如何利用有限的资源,合理选择观测种类并进行观测布局,以提高海洋气象监测能力和预报准确度,是海洋气象学的重要研究内容之一。目标观测的方法可以识别敏感区,主要用于区域高影响天气的研究中。观测系统模拟试验(OSSE)采用模式模拟的观测,能显著节省观测成本,并且可用于全球和区域的观测布局策略研究。本文对OSSE进行了详细介绍,总结了近年来国内外在OSSE上取得的进展,并对未来的发展方向进行了展望,重点论述三个方面:OSSE的验证、校正方法及之前的使用误区;在海洋气象方向有较大发展潜力的新观测手段和观测策略的评估;耦合OSSE的发展和强耦合同化技术为OSSE研究带来的新机遇。

Compared with land observation,conventional observation in vast oceans is relatively sparse,and the cost for marine observation is relatively high.These factors limit the development of marine meteorology.In order to improve monitoring ability and forecast accuracy of marine meteorology with limited resources,the selection of observation type and the layout for observation are important research content of marine meteorology.Targeting observation method can identify sensitive areas and is mainly used in the study of regional high-impact weather.Observing system simulation experiment(OSSE)uses model simulated observations,which saves observation cost significantly.It can also be used in research of global and regional observation layout strategy.In this paper,we introduce OSSE in detail,summarize the advances in OSSE at home and abroad,and look into the future of OSSE.We mainly emphasize the three aspects:validation and calibration of OSSE as well as the previous misunderstanding;evaluation of new observation method and observation strategy that have great potentials in marine meteorology;the development of coupled OSSE and new opportunities of OSSE brought by strongly coupled data assimilation.