中国海外移民与外商直接投资——基于政策不确定性缓解与友城建设促进效应的分析

Chinese Overseas Immigrants and Foreign Direct Investment:Analysis Based on Policy Uncertainty Alleviationand and Promotion Effect of Sister City Construction

利用115个国家(地区)1990—2020年的面板数据,深入分析中国海外移民对外商直接投资(FDI)的影响及作用机制。基于泊松伪最大似然方法(PPML)模型的实证结果表明,中国在其他国家移民人数占比的提高,显著促进了其他国家对中国的直接投资;中国海外移民对FDI的影响通过经济政策不确定性缓解效应、友城建设促进效应两种机制发挥作用;与中国语言越相通、文化差距越小、对外国人信任程度越高的国家以及欠发达国家,移民对FDI的促进作用更大。进一步分析表明,双边互联网发展程度越高,中国移民对FDI的正向作用越强;与海外游客相比较,海外移民对FDI的促进作用更强。有关移民作用FDI的因果论证,证实了海外移民在“稳外资”中具有重要作用。

Panel data of 115 countries(regions)from 1990 to 2020 are utilized to analyze the impact and mechanism of Chinese overseas immigrants on foreign direct investment(FDI).The empirical results based on the PPML model indicate that the increase in the proportion of Chinese immigrants in other countries has significantly promoted direct investment in China from those countries;Chinese overseas immigrants play the role through two mechanisms:the effect of economic policy uncertainty alleviation and the promotion effect of sister city construction.Immigrants have a greater promoting effect on FDI in countries whose language are more similar to the Chinese,have smaller cultural differences with China,have a higher level of trust in foreigners,as well as in developing countries.Further analysis shows that the higher the development level of bilateral internet,the stronger the positive effect of Chinese immigrants on FDI;compared to overseas tourists,overseas immigrants play a stronger role in promoting FDI.The causal argument on the role of immigrants on FDI made in the article confirms the important role of overseas immigrants in“stabilizing foreign direct investment”.