国家级新区建设能否增强边疆城市经济韧性?——来自昆明和哈尔滨的证据

Can the Construction of National New Areas Enhance the Economic Resilience of Border Cities?——Evidence from Kunming and Harbin

作为国家战略,国家级新区建设在增强边疆城市经济韧性方面发挥着重要作用。文章基于2010—2021年我国53个大中型城市的面板数据,以昆明、哈尔滨在2015年设立国家级新区进行准自然实验,运用合成控制法和双重差分模型评估国家级新区建设增强边疆城市经济韧性的政策效应并展开分析。研究发现:第一,国家级新区建设能显著增强边疆城市的经济韧性;第二,国家级新区建设对昆明的城市经济韧性的增强效应大于对哈尔滨的增强效应,即国家级新区建设增强边疆城市经济韧性的政策效应具有异质性;第三,国家级新区建设通过促进产业结构高级化增强边疆城市的经济韧性,但通过促进产业结构合理化增强经济韧性的作用机制尚不明确。最后,文章提出政府要加大政策扶持力度,国家级新区要在明确自身定位基础上促进产业结构转型升级,因地制宜发展具有本土特色的新兴优势产业。

The establishment of national new areas serves as a pivotal national strategy,significantly contributing to the economic resilience of border cities.This study examines the impact of creating national new areas in Kunming and Harbin in 2015,utilizing panel data from 53 large and medium-sized cities spanning from 2010 to 2021.Through quasinatural experiments,alongside the application of the synthetic control method and a difference-in-differences model,the research assesses the policy's effectiveness in bolstering the economic resilience of border cities.The findings reveal that:firstly,the initiation of national new areas markedly strengthens the economic resilience of border cities.Secondly,the positive impact on economic resilience is more pronounced in Kunming than in Harbin,indicating a heterogeneous policy effect across different cities.Thirdly,the enhancement of economic resilience in border cities through the construction of national new areas is primarily achieved by promoting industrial structure upgrading,although the mechanism through which industrial structure rationalization contributes to this resilience remains unclear.In conclusion,the paper suggests that government policy support should be intensified.National new areas are encouraged to focus on their strategic positioning,fostering the transformation and upgrading of the industrial structure,and to develop emerging industries with local characteristics that are tailored to regional conditions.