黄河流域共同富裕发展水平差异、动态演化与驱动性分析

Differences in the Development Level,Dynamic Evolution and Driving Forces of Common Prosperity in the Yellow River Basin

共同富裕是社会主义的本质要求,亦是现代化建设的必由之路。通过熵值法测度了黄河流域共同富裕发展水平,并用Dagum基尼系数、核密度、Markov链及面板分位数等方法分析了差异来源、分布动态、空间动态演进及驱动性因素。结果表明:(1)黄河流域的共同富裕水平显著提升,具有动态性、相对性和差异性的特征。中下游地区的共同富裕水平要显著高于上游地区。(2)区域间差异、区域内差异、超变密度是影响黄河流域共同富裕差异水平的主要因素。(3)黄河流域各省共同富裕水平存在“俱乐部趋同”现象。高水平趋同俱乐部要比中间趋同俱乐部更为稳定且不容易发生转移,具有明显的“马太效应”;共同富裕发展水平较好的省份的溢出效应和交互影响效应强烈。(4)物质生活、精神生活、创新发展、基础设施、教育水平和社会保障在不同分位点位均显著正向影响共同富裕水平。其中农村人均可支配收入对共同富裕的影响呈现“Λ”变化趋势,参加失业保险率对共同富裕水平的影响系数最大,R&D经费投入强度影响系数随着分位数的增大而增大。提出提高居民收入水平,改善居民生活品质;缩小区域发展差距,推动区域协调发展;全面加强基础设施建设,构建现代化基础设施体系的对策。

Common prosperity is an essential requirement of socialism and a necessary path for modernization construction.The entropy method was used to measure the level of common prosperity and development in the Yellow River basin,and Dagum Gini coefficient,kernel density,Markov chain,and panel quantile methods were used to analyze the sources of differences,distribution dynamics,spatial dynamic evolution,and driving factors.The results indicated that:(1)The level of common prosperity in the Yellow River basin had significantly improved,with dynamic,relative,and differential characteristics.The level of common prosperity in the middle and downstream regions was significantly higher than that in the upstream regions.(2)The main factors affecting the level of common prosperity differences in the Yellow River basin were inter regional differences,intra regional differences,and super variable density.(3)There was a phenomenon of club convergence in the common prosperity level of various provinces in the Yellow River basin.High level convergence clubs were more stable and less prone to transfer than intermediate convergence clubs,exhibiting a significant Matthew effect.The spillover and interactive effects of provinces with good levels of common prosperity and development were strong.(4)Material life,spiritual life,innovative development,infrastructure,education level,and social security all had a significant positive impact on the level of common prosperity at different percentiles.The impact of per capita disposable income in rural areas on common prosperity showed a‘Λ’trend,with the participation rate of unemployment insurance having the greatest impact coefficient on the level of common prosperity.The impact coefficient of R&D expenditure intensity increased with the increase of quantiles.The countermeasures of increasing the income level of residents and improving their quality of life,narrowing the regional development gap and promoting coordinated regional development,comprehensively strengthening infrastructure construction and building a modern infrastructure system were given.