考虑台风影响的海上风电机组部件剩余寿命预测方法

Residual life prediction of offshore wind turbine components considering typhoon effects

针对台风天气影响下海上风电机组剩余寿命预测问题,提出了考虑退化状态与台风冲击相依的海上风电机组部件剩余寿命预测方法。基于台风冲击模型及部件状态对部件退化过程的影响分析,构建了考虑退化状态与冲击相依的海上风电机组部件剩余寿命可靠度模型。利用实际监测数据对部件可靠度模型进行修正更新,建立了剩余寿命动态预测模型。采用fmincon函数对离散化处理后的部件可靠度模型进行参数估计,结合运行监测数据修正参数,进而动态预测剩余寿命。以某海上风电机组齿轮箱部件为例进行仿真,验证了所提方法的有效性。

Aiming at the problem of residual life prediction of offshore wind turbines under the influence of typhoon weather,the prediction method of residual life of offshore wind turbine components considering the dependence of degradation state and typhoon impact is proposed.Based on the analysis of the impact of typhoon impact model and component state on component degradation process,the reliability model of offshore wind turbine components is constructed considering the dependence of degradation state and impact.In order to improve the accuracy and robustness of prediction under complex operating conditions,a dynamic prediction model of residual life is established by revising and updating the component degradation model with actual monitoring data.Parameters of the component reliability model are estimated by using fmincon function and revised by monitoring data,and the residual life are dynamically predicted.A gearbox component of an offshore wind turbine is simulated to verify the effectiveness of the proposed method.