中美战略竞争与东盟内部凝聚力

China-US Strategic Competition and ASEAN Internal Cohesion

在地区权力加速转移的背景下,东南亚成为中美两国战略博弈的重要地缘方向。东盟的内部凝聚力是指东盟各国能否就某一议题达成政策共识,并形成东盟层面一致决策的组织向心力。文章认为,中美之间日趋激烈的竞争态势将严重削弱东盟的内部凝聚力,中美竞争烈度的不断攀升可能导致东盟内部在部分议题上难以达成一致意见。中美竞争作用于东盟共识的过程包含以下三个递进的层次:首先,中美竞争烈度的上升及两国对东盟不断加注的行为使东盟面临“选边站”的压力,东盟国家被迫在中美之间作出选择。其次,由于国家实力、联盟关系、领土冲突及历史记忆对东盟国家领导人的不同作用,东盟内部在“选边站”的立场上出现严重分歧。最后,以“东盟方式”为核心的东盟决策机制无法有效弥合东盟内部的分歧,东盟在中美博弈的重要议题上陷入决策困境。东盟国家在应对南海争端、“印太战略”上的政策分歧表明,中美逐渐凸显不兼容性的竞争正在激起东盟国家内部的立场差异。未来以地区制度为中心的大国竞争可能对东盟的区域影响力造成一定影响。

With the acceleration of the power transition,Southeast Asia has become the main battlefield of Sino-US Strategic Competition.The unity within ASEAN,known as ASEAN internal cohesion,depends on whether the member countries can reach policy consensus on certain issues and then take collective actions at the ASEAN level.The article argues that the intensified China-US rivalry will significantly weaken ASEAN unity and may even split the organization.The reasons are as follows:First,the Sino-US competition and the two countries'increasing concerns about Southeast Asia have pressured ASEAN countries to‘choose sides’between the two big powers.Second,under the different influences of national strength,alliance relations,territorial disputes,and historical memories,the leaders of ASEAN countries hold varied attitudes toward big power contests.As a result,countries are unable to reach a consensus on which side to take within ASEAN.Last,the“ASEAN way”decision-making mechanism is incapable of bridging ASEAN countries' policy divergences,in that condition,ASEAN is caught in a decision-making dilemma regarding the debated area in the Sino-US game.The inconsistent policies of ASEAN countries in dealing with the South China Sea dispute and the Indo-Pacific strategy,indicate that the incompatible Sino-US rivalry is stirring up the inherent conflicts among ASEAN countries.In the future,the escalating competition between China and the United States,centered on regional institution contests,may further diminish ASEAN's influence in Asia.