“一带一路”倡议的农产品贸易成本效应

The Agricultural Trade Cost Effect of the Belt and Road Initiative

文章实证研究了“一带一路”倡议对中国与沿线国家间双边农产品贸易成本的影响及作用机制。首先,应用NOVY引力模型的贸易成本测算结果表明,2002—2021年,中国与“一带一路”沿线国家的农产品贸易成本下降了42%,降幅远超过非沿线国家。其次,基于双重差分模型,文章验证了“一带一路”倡议在降低中国与沿线国家农产品贸易成本中发挥了重要作用。同时研究发现,相较于沿线发展中国家和距离中国较近的国家和地区,“一带一路”倡议的农产品贸易成本效应在发达国家和距离中国较远的国家和地区更为明显。最后,机制检验表明,“一带一路”倡议主要通过扩大贸易开放、促进政策沟通和推动基础设施建设降低双边农产品贸易成本。上述研究为“一带一路”倡议的政策效应研究增添了重要的实证证据,也为进一步提出降低农产品贸易成本的政策启示提供经验依据,有利于促进和深化中国与“一带一路”沿线国家的农业合作,实现互利共赢。

This study empirically examines the impact and mechanisms of the Belt and Road(B&R)initiative on the bilateral trade costs of agricultural products between China and countries along the route.Firstly,utilizing the trade cost calculations based on Novy(2012)gravity model,the results indicate a substantial 42%reduction in agricultural product trade costs between China and B&R countries from 2002 to 2021,surpassing the decline observed with non-B&R countries.Secondly,employing a difference-indifferences model,this study verifies the significant role played by the B&R initiative in lowering agricultural product trade costs between China and B&R countries.The research further reveals that the impact of the B&R initiative on agricultural product trade costs is more pronounced in developed countries and countries located farther from China,compared to developing countries and those in closer proximity.Finally,mechanism testing suggests that the BRI primarily reduces bilateral agricultural product trade costs through expanding trade openness,promoting policy communication and facilitating infrastructure construction.These empiri⁃cal findings contribute valuable evidence to the study of the policy effects of the B&R initiative,offering an experiential basis for proposing policy recommendations to further reduce agricultural product trade costs.This is conducive to promoting and deepening agricultural cooperation between China and countries along the route,fostering mutually beneficial outcomes.