基于3D蒙特卡洛的TCAS告警下的碰撞风险评估

Collision Risk Assessment in TCAS Warning Situation Based on 3D Monte-Carlo

对于同时拥有运输和飞行训练任务的单跑道机场,运行过程中常出现为了避免与运输航班发生冲突而延长训练机三边的情况,从而导致运输机的交通碰撞避免系统(TCAS)产生TA告警。提出了一个3D碰撞风险评估模型来评估此场景下两机的碰撞风险。建立了飞机位置预测模型,使用蒙特卡洛方法得出飞机在每一时刻的位置分布;根据TCAS系统定义建立了TCAS碰撞模型;最后,统计训练机的蒙特卡洛样本进入TCAS碰撞模型的次数,对飞机间的碰撞风险做出评估。结果表明:三边航线与跑道间的侧向间距不小于2037 m时,两机触发TA告警后,两机可以分别沿三边以及五边继续飞行。在后续的飞行过程中,两机的碰撞风险小于ICAO规定的1×10-7次/h,满足安全目标水平。

Some single-runway airports have both transport and flight training missions.Around these airports,it is common for training aircraft on the downwind leg to extend its leg to avoid conflict with transport flights on the final leg.This can result in the transport aircraft′s Traffic Collision Avoidance System(TCAS)generating a TA(Traffic Advisory)warning.This paper proposes a 3D collision risk assessment model to evaluate the collision risk between two aircraft in this specific scenario.First,the aircraft position prediction model is established,and the Monte Carlo method is used to obtain the position distribution of the aircraft at each moment.Secondly,a TCAS collision model is established based on the definition of the TCAS system.Finally,the number of Monte Carlo samples of the training aircraft entering the TCAS collision model is counted to evaluate the collision risk between the two aircraft.The research results show that,under the condition that the lateral distance between the downwind leg and the runway is not less than 2037 meters,after the training aircraft on the extended downwind leg causes the transport aircraft on the final leg to issue a TA warning,both aircraft can continue flying along their respective downwind and final legs.In the subsequent flight process,the collision risk of the two aircraft is less than 1×10-7 times per hour,as stipulated by ICAO,which meets the safety target level.