中国加入CPTPP的农产品贸易效应研究--基于WITS-SMART模型

A Research on the Trade Effect of Agricultural Products after China's Accession to CPTPP:Based on the WITS-SMART Model

粮食安全是国家安全的基石,面对国际市场不稳定性,加入CPTPP有望为中国夯实农产品贸易韧性提供新契机。在考察中国与CPTPP国家农产品贸易竞合关系的基础上,运用WITS-SMART模型建立局部均衡分析框架,研究中国加入CPTPP的农产品贸易效应,结果发现:第一,中国农产品竞争力整体不强,但与CPTPP国家依存关系较高,双边贸易潜力在关税完全削减时充分释放。第二,零关税情境下,贸易创造效应普遍大于转移效应,中国对CPTPP多数国家农产品贸易规模大幅扩张,进口增长主要源自种植业、畜牧业部门以及加拿大、澳大利亚、英国、日本等国家,出口增长主要集中于种植业部门以及日本、英国、马来西亚、墨西哥等国家。第三,加入CPTPP显著改善了双边经济福利,不过关税损失较为严重。因此,中国应破除部门利益障碍,加强与墨西哥、日本、英国等国经贸联系以充分挖掘CPTPP国家市场潜力,释放贸易自由化福利,持续提高农产品出口质量和国际竞争力以应对加入CPTPP带来的挑战。

Food security is the cornerstone of national security.Faced with the instability of the international market,China's accession to the CPTPP presents a new opportunity to strengthen the resilience of agricultural trade.Grounded in an examination of China's competitive and cooperative relationship in agricultural trade with CPTPP countries,this paper employs the WITS-SMART model to establish a partial equilibrium analytical framework.The study investigates the agricultural trade effects of China's accession to the CPTPP,revealing following outcomes.First,China's agricultural overall competitiveness is relatively weak,but it manifests strong trade complementarity with CPTPP nations.The bilateral trade potential will be fully realized upon the complete elimination of tariffs.Second,under a scenario of zero tariffs,the trade creation effect predominantly exceeds the trade diversion effect.China's agricultural trade with most CPTPP countries expands significantly,with import growth mainly from the farming and livestock sectors and countries like Canada,Australia,the UK,and Japan.While export growth is mainly concentrated in the farming sector and countries such as Japan,the UK,Malaysia,and Mexico.Third,while China's accession to the CPTPP notably improves bilateral economic welfare,although tariff losses are substantial.Consequently,China should break down sectoral interest barriers and strengthen economic and trade ties with countries like Mexico,Japan,and the UK.This approach aims to fully tap into the market potential of CPTPP countries,unleash the benefits of trade liberalization,and consistently improve the quality of agricultural exports and international competitiveness to address challenges posed by CPTPP membership.