易地搬迁后续扶持政策效果评价与影响因素--基于西部10省1297户的实地调查数据

Effect and Factors of the Follow-up Support Policies for Relocation:Based on the Field Data of 1297 Households in 10 Western Provinces

易地搬迁后续扶持工作既是助力搬迁群众稳定增收、加速社会融合、化解致贫返贫风险的关键,更是巩固拓展脱贫攻坚成果同乡村振兴有效衔接、推进实现共同富裕的核心要义。基于西部10省1297户农户的微观调查数据,采用主成分分析法和工具变量分位数回归模型,综合评估后续扶持政策成效并进行区域优先序评价,进而剖析后续扶持政策效果的影响因素,并立足情景化的个体生存状态,从多维视角探寻政策实施效果的异质性及其成因。研究发现:第一,后续扶持政策效益存在显著地区差异,大致呈现“西北高西南低”的空间分布特征;第二,非农生计、社会资本和内生动力是政策效果得以跃升的关键;第三,进一步讨论得知,农户收入层级与政策效益呈正相关关系,且安置区类型、社会资本差异和性别差异均会影响后续扶持政策效益的稳定性。为此,各地后续扶持工作应完善升级安置区配套基础和公共服务设施;多管齐下加快发展主导产业,加快推进群众经济社会融入步伐;激活群众自我发展内生动力;出台和优化差异化的后续扶持政策,增加搬迁群众的主观福利。

The follow-up support work for relocation is not only crucial in stabilizingand increasing the income of the relocated population,accelerating social integration,and resolving the risk of poverty and poverty-returning,but also essential in consolidating and expanding the achievements of poverty alleviation,effectively connecting them with rural revitalization,and promoting the realization of common prosperity.Based on the micro-survey data of 1297 households from 10 provinces in West China,this study uses principal component analysis and instrumental variable quantile regression model to comprehensively evaluate the effectiveness of follow-upsupport policies,conduct regional priority evaluation,and then analyze the influencing factors of the effectiveness.This study has the following findings.(1)There are significant regional differences in the effectiveness of subsequent support policies,roughly showing a spatial distribution characteristic of“high in the northwest and low in the southwest”.(2)Non-agricultural livelihoods,social capital,and endogenous power are the key factors to improving the effectiveness of the policies.(3)Further discussion reveals that there is a positive correlation between farmers'income level and policy effectiveness,and that the types of resettlement areas,differences in social capital,and gender differences all affect the stability of the effectiveness of follow-up support policies.Therefore,follow-up support work in various regions should improve and upgrade the supporting infrastructure and public service facilities in resettlement areas,develop leading industries in multiple ways to accelerate the pace of economic and social integration of the people,activate the endogenous power of the people for self-development,and introduce and optimize differentiated follow-up support policies to increase the subjective well-being of relocated people.