安徽省气候变化对粮食作物种植结构的影响

Impact of climate change on crop planting structure in Anhui Province

为明确气候变化对安徽省粮食作物种植结构的影响,选取2000—2020年粮食作物产量和播种面积数据,结合地理重心模型,分析气象要素、粮食作物产量和播种面积的时空变化特征,研究气候变化对3种粮食作物种植结构的影响。结果表明:1)气温整体呈上升趋势,呈现“升—降—升”特征;异常风速整体呈下降趋势,呈现“正相位—负相位”特征;日照时数整体呈上升趋势;2)稻谷、玉米和小麦播种面积重心的偏移趋势分别是东北、西北和东南向;3)稻谷、玉米和小麦产量重心的偏移趋势分别是东北、西南和东南向;4)气温对稻谷产量有显著正作用;风速对稻谷有显著正作用,对小麦有显著负作用;日照时数对稻谷、玉米和小麦均有显著正作用;湿度对玉米有显著正作用。21年间安徽省气候变化对农作物种植结构的影响明显。

In order to assess the influence of climate change on the planting structure of food crops in Anhui Province,this study analyzed the spatial-temporal characteristics of meteorological variables,food crop yields and sown areas based on the statistics and observational data from 2000 to 2020.By using the geographic centroid model and statistical analysis methods,the results showed as follows:(1)The air temperature show an increasing trend,acting as a“rise-drop-rise”mode;the trend of anomalous wind speed was decreasing,presenting a“positive-negative-phase change”feature;the sunshine hours show an increasing trend.(2)The changing of the center of gravity of the sown area of rice,corn,and wheat were,respectively,northeastward,northwestward,and southeastward.(3)The changing of the center of gravity of the yield of rice,corn,and wheat were northeastward,southwestward,and southeastward,respectively.(4)Air temperature had a significantly positive effect on the yield of rice,and wind speed had a significantly positive effect on rice.There was negative relationship between the yield of wheat and wind speed.Besides,sunlight hours had a significantly positive effect on the yield of rice,corn,and wheat,with a positive relationship between humidity and the yield of corn.The impact of climate change on the agricultural crop planting structure over the past 21 years was significant.The research results are expected to provide a theoretical basis for the formulation of grain production layout in Anhui Province.