基于主成分分析的S市水资源承载力时空演变研究

Temporal and spatial evolution of water resources carrying capacity in S City based on principal component analysis

水资源承载力的评价是水资源合理配置和开发利用的基础。基于S市2012—2021年的水资源统计资料,选取年底总人口等15项指标,建立水资源承载力评价体系,采用主成分分析方法对研究区水资源承载力进行时空演变分析。结果表明,影响研究区水资源承载力的三大主成分包括社会经济发展水平、人口与农业发展因素和水资源的自然状况;从时间上看,2012—2021年研究区的水资源承载力总体呈现波动上升趋势;从空间上看,研究区水资源承载力大体呈东部最高,中部、北部次之的空间分布格局。

Evaluation of water resource carrying capacity is the basis for rational allocation,utilization,and development of water resources.Based on the statistical data of S City from 2012 to 2021,the evaluation system of water resources carrying capacity was established by selecting 15 indexes including total population at the end of the year.The principal component analysis method was used to analyze the temporal and spatial evolution of the water resources carrying capacity in S City.The results showed that the main factors affecting the water resources carrying capacity in the study area include the level of social and economic development,population and agricultural development factors and the natural condition of water resources;from the perspective of time,the water resources carrying capacity of the study area showed a trend of fluctuant increase from 2012 to 2021;from the perspective of space,the water resources carrying capacity of the study area generally presents the highest spatial pattern in the east,followed by the middle and north.