2000—2021年黄河流域化肥使用量与粮食产量时空变化特征

Spatial-temporal Distribution Characteristics of Fertilizer Application and Grain Yield in Yellow River Basin from 2000 to 2021

[目的]研究黄河流域化肥使用时空变化特征及其与粮食生产的关系,为该流域化肥施用管控提供理论依据。[方法]基于2000—2021年黄河流域化肥使用量和粮食产量相关数据,采用空间自相关分析、核密度分析和标准差椭圆等方法对黄河流域化肥使用的时空变化特征进行了分析,并探讨化肥使用量和粮食产量的关系。[结果]2000—2021年黄河流域粮食产量增长49.55%,大于化肥使用量增速(24.87%),2013年后流域化肥使用量开始波动下降,粮食产量依然保持增长趋势,化肥使用效率明显提升。近22 a来黄河流域化肥使用的区域集聚态势在持续减弱,黄河流域化肥使用量在空间上具有一定的非均衡性,热点区域主要集中在河南和山东省,冷点区域集中在青海和甘肃省,22 a来黄河流域化肥使用热点区域减少,高值聚集区向西移动,冷点区域增加。近22 a来黄河流域上中下游地区化肥使用量分别增长46.52%,38.68%和9.50%,西部地区化肥使用量快速增长,推动了流域化肥使用重心向北西西方向移动57.40 km。近22 a来黄河流域粮食产量重心向北北西方向移动22.06 km,与化肥使用量重心趋于分离。[结论]黄河流域化肥减量增效行动成效显著,但整体化肥使用强度仍为超标状态,未来仍需减少化肥使用。

[Objective]The spatiotemporal variation characteristics of chemical fertilizer use in the Yellow River basin and its relationship with grain production were analyzed in order to provide a theoretical basis for the control of chemical fertilizer application in the basin.[Methods]Fertilizer application and grain yield data in the Yellow River basin from 2000 to 2021 were used with spatial autocorrelation analysis,kernel density analysis,and ellipse of standard deviation to analyze the temporal and spatial variation characteristics of fertilizer use in the Yellow River basin,and to explore the relationship between fertilizer use and grain yield.[Results]From 2000 to 2021,grain yield in the Yellow River basin has increased by 49.55%,which was greater than the growth rate of chemical fertilizer application(24.87%).After 2013,chemical fertilizer applications in the basin began to fluctuate and decrease,while grain yield still maintained a growth trend.The efficiency of fertilizer application has significantly improved.During the past 22 years,the regional agglomeration trend of chemical fertilizer application in the Yellow River basin has been continuously weakening.The amount of chemical fertilizer use in the Yellow River basin has a certain degree of spatial imbalance,with hot areas mainly concentrated in Henan and Shandong Province,and cold areas concentrated in Qinghai and Gansu Province.During the past 22 years,the number of hot areas of chemical fertilizer use in the Yellow River basin has decreased,high-value aggregation areas have moved westward,and cold areas have increased.During the past 22 years,the use of chemical fertilizers in the upper,middle,and lower reaches of the Yellow River basin has increased by 46.52%,38.68%,and 9.5%,respectively.The rapid growth of chemical fertilizer use in the western region has moved the center of gravity of chemical fertilizer use in the basin 57.40 km to the northwest.During the past 22 years,the center of gravity of grain production in the Yellow River basin has shifted 22.06 km to the northwest,and it has tended to separate from the center of gravity of fertilizer use.[Conclusion]The action of reducing chemical fertilizer use and increasing fertilizer use efficiency in the Yellow River basin has achieved significant results,but the overall intensity of chemical fertilizer use still exceeds the standard.Therefore,it will still be necessary to reduce chemical fertilizer use in the future.