郑州市土地利用/覆被变化与生境质量的时空演变及情景预测

Spatiotemporal Evolution and Scenario Prediction of Land-use/Land-cover Changes and Habitat Quality in Zhengzhou City

[目的]探究郑州市土地利用格局和生境质量时空演变特征并预测未来发展趋势,为区域生态保护实践和可持续发展提供理论参考。[方法]基于PLUS模型和InVEST模型,同时结合ArcGIS空间分析及地理信息图谱法,分析2000—2020年郑州市土地利用变化情况,并模拟2030年基准情景和生态保护情景下的空间分布格局,探究郑州市生境质量时空演变规律和像元尺度下的迁移状态。[结果]①2000—2020年,耕地和建设用地为郑州市主要景观类型,20年间,建设用地面积激增,涨幅15.76%,主要来源于耕地;②PLUS模型对郑州市土地利用模拟具有适用性,相较于基准情景,2030年生态保护情景下建设用地扩张受限,生态用地总量上升,该情景可为研究区推进生态建设提供参考;③2000—2020年生境质量不断退化,空间分布差异显著,高生境质量区始终位于巩义市和登封市,低和较低等级的图谱单元相互转移最频繁;④2030年延续“西高东低”格局,生态保护情景下生境质量呈“低值减少,高值增多”的特征,向较高和高等级转移率升至14.44%,与基准情景相比表现出稳中向好的发展趋势。[结论]郑州市生境质量时空分布与土地利用变化密切相关,未来应注重国土空间结构的合理布局,增强土地利用效率,提升生态系统质量和稳定性。

[Objective]The spatial and temporal evolution characteristics of land use patterns and habitat quality in Zhengzhou City were determined and future development trends were predicted in order to provide a theoretical reference for regional ecological conservation practices and sustainable development.[Methods]The PLUS model and InVEST model were combined with ArcGIS spatial analysis and the geo-spectrum information method to analyze land use changes in Zhengzhou City from 2000 to 2020,and to simulate the spatial distribution pattern under a baseline scenario and an ecological protection scenario in 2030.The spatial and temporal evolution laws of habitat quality and the migration status were then determined at the pixel scale.[Results]①From 2000 to 2020,cultivated land and construction land were the main land use types in Zhengzhou City.Over the past 20 years,the area of construction land increased sharply by 15.76%,coming mainly from cultivated land.②The PLUS model was applicable in Zhengzhou City.Compared with the baseline scenario,the expansion of construction land was limited,and the total amount of ecological land increased under the ecological protection scenario,which could provide a reference for promoting ecological construction in the study area.③Habitat quality degraded continuously,with significant spatial distribution differences,from 2000 to 2020.High habitat quality areas were consistently located in Gongyi and Dengfeng City,and low and medium-low map units transferred to each other most frequently.④In 2030,the pattern of“higher in the west and lower in the east”will continue.Under the ecological protection scenario,habitat quality was characterized by“decrease in low values and increase in high values”,and the transfer rate to the high and medium-high grades increased to 14.44%,showing a stable and positive development trend compared with the baseline scenario.[Conclusion]The spatial and temporal distribution of habitat quality in Zhengzhou City was closely related to land use changes.The study area should focus on the rational layout of national spatial structure,enhance the efficiency of land use,and improve the quality and stability of ecosystems in the future.