金华市国际陆港演化博弈发展研究

Research on the Evolutionary Game Development of Jinhua International Land Port

金华市作为“一带一路”重要节点城市,凭借中欧班列(义新欧)、金义东高铁、金义国际机场和义甬舟开放大通道的建设,正逐步构建起综合立体、无缝衔接的交通枢纽。然而,其国际陆港的发展面临核心城市作用弱、海港配套能力不足、海铁联运智能化程度不高、与宁波舟山港一体化水平待提升等问题。本文通过构建演化博弈模型、利用Matlab仿真演化路径定量探讨了金华国际陆港与宁波舟山港的联动发展影响因素,研究结果表明:该演化博弈模型对金华市国际陆港、义甬舟海港以及政府参与合作过程有实际的预测指导作用。通过仿真分析发现博弈过程中初始策略以及各项影响因素均具有不同的敏感程度,发现在相近的变动水平下,影响政府决策的政府支持成本C的敏感性最大,政府不参加合作产生的市场混乱损失M影响性系数最小,影响国际陆港决策因素的国际陆港单独运营货物进出口贸易总额增加带来的收益R2的敏感性最大,国际陆港与海港合作产生的额外收益J的敏感性最小,影响海港决策因素海港单独运营货物进出口贸易总额增加量带来的经济效益R3的敏感性最高。研究成果为优化陆港与海港的合作模式、促进区域经济一体化提供了理论依据与实践指导。

As an important node city of "the Belt and Road",Jinhua is gradually building a comprehensive,three-dimensional and seamless transportation hub by virtue of the construction of China Europe Express(Yixinou),Jinyidong High speed Railway,Jinyi International Airport and Yiyongzhou Open Channel.However,the development of its international land port faces problems such as weak role of core cities,insufficient supporting capacity of seaports,low level of intelligence in sea rail intermodal transportation,and the need to improve the integration level with Ningbo Zhoushan Port.This article quantitatively explores the influencing factors of the coordinated development between Jinhua International Land Port and Ningbo Zhoushan Port by constructing an evolutionary game model and using Matlab simulation of the evolutionary path.The research results show that the evolutionary game model has practical predictive guidance for Jinhua International Land Port,Yiyongzhou Port,and government participation in the cooperation process.Through simulation analysis,it was found that the initial strategy and various influencing factors in the game process have different sensitivities.It was found that at similar levels of change,the government support cost C,which affects government decision-making,has the highest sensitivity;the market chaos loss M,which is caused by government non participation in cooperation,has the lowest impact coefficient;the income R2,which affects the decision-making factors of international land ports,is the most sensitive to the increase in the total import and export trade volume of goods operated by international land ports alone;the additional income J,which is generated by cooperation between international land ports and sea ports,has the lowest sensitivity,and the economic benefit R3,which affects the decision-making factors of sea ports,the increase in the total import and export trade volume of goods operated by sea ports alone,has the highest sensitivity.The research results provide theoretical basis and practical guidance for optimizing the cooperation mode between land and sea ports and promoting regional economic integration.