交通—人口—经济—环境协调发展的时空格局及趋势预测——基于成渝地区双城经济圈的实证研究

The Spatiotemporal Pattern and Trend Prediction of Coordinated Development of Transportation-Population-Economy-Environment:An Empirical Study Based on the Chengdu-Chongqing Economic Circle

协同发展是必然选择,揭示成渝地区协调发展情况及其时空演变格局可为其可持续高质量发展提供参考依据。基于成渝地区双城经济圈16个城市2010—2020年的数据,构建交通—人口—经济—环境四个系统的综合评价指标体系,运用耦合协调度模型分析成渝地区双城经济圈交通—人口—经济—环境的耦合协调发展时空格局,并采用灰色GM(1,1)模型预测其未来发展趋势。结果表明:(1)成渝地区双城经济圈交通、人口、经济、环境子系统的综合评价水平均呈现波动上升趋势;(2)四个系统的耦合协调度呈现缓慢上升态势,整体向良性协调发展,在空间特征上,成渝地区四个系统耦合协调度发展较好的城市主要集中于“双核”周围,但四个系统的空间相关性并不显著;(3)通过对耦合协调度的预测可以看出,成渝地区各城市2021—2025年的耦合协调发展情况在整体上将缓慢改善,但达到四个系统互补协调发展还需更长时间。

Collaborative development is an inevitable choice,and revealing the coordinated development situation and spatiotemporal evolution pattern of the Chengdu-Chongqing region can provide a reference for its sustainable and high-quality development.Based on data from 16 cities in the Chengdu-Chongqing economic circle from 2010 to 2020,a comprehensive evaluation index system of four systems of transportation-population-economy-environment is constructed.The coupling coordination model is used to analyze the spatiotemporal pattern of coupled and coordinated development of transportation-population-economy-environment in the Chengdu-Chongqing economic circle,and the gray GM(1,1)model is used to predict its future development trend.The results show that:(1)The comprehensive evaluation level of transportation,population,economy,and environment subsystems in the Chengdu-Chongqing economic circle show a fluctuating upward trend;(2)The coupling coordination degree of the four systems shows a slow upward trend,and the overall development is towards benign coordination.In terms of spatial characteristics,the cities with well-developed coupling coordination degree of the four systems in the Chengdu-Chongqing region are mainly concentrated around the“dual core”,but the spatial correlation of the four systems is not significant;(3)By predicting the degree of coupling coordination,it can be seen that the overall development of coupling coordination among cities in the Chengdu-Chongqing region from 2021 to 2025 will slowly improve,but it will take longer to achieve complementary and coordinated development among the four systems.