中国数量型货币政策与工业企业杠杆率关系再研究

A Re-Study on the Relationship between Quantitative Monetary Policy and Leverage Ratio of Industrial Enterprises in China

本文以2001-2022年相关数据为基础,利用频域谱分析方法和面板向量自回归模型,从波动关系和动态影响两个角度,对我国数量型货币政策与工业企业杠杆率的关系进行研究。结果表明:(1)广义货币供应量增速的次波动周期与工业企业杠杆率的波动周期接近,表明数量型货币政策对工业企业杠杆率存在着兼顾的可能。且广义货币供应量增速的变动从短期和长期来看,均滞后于工业企业杠杆率的变动,说明工业企业杠杆率的变动对于宏观经济的波动具有一定先导性。(2)数量型货币政策与工业企业杠杆率之间是一个双向影响的动态过程,但数量型货币政策变动对工业企业杠杆率的影响要小于工业企业杠杆率变动对数量型货币政策的影响,说明虽然数量型货币政策对于工业企业杠杆率的传导渠道依然存在,但作用却在减弱。(3)异质性分析表明,在不同行业类别、所有权性质、企业规模条件下,数量型货币政策与工业企业杠杆率的互动效应以及工业企业杠杆率的自强化效应存在差异。

Based on the relevant data from 2001 to 2022,this paper uses the spectrum analysis meth-od and the panel vector autoregressive model to study the relationship between China's quantitative mon-etary policy and the leverage ratio of industrial enterprises from two perspectives:fluctuation relationship and dynamic influence.The results show that:(1)The sub-fluctuation cycle of the growth rate of broad money supply is close to the fluctuation cycle of the leverage ratio of industrial enterprises,indicating that there is a possibility that quantitative monetary policy can take into account the leverage ratio of industrial enterprises.Moreover,the changes in the growth rate of broad money supply lag behind the changes in the leverage ratio of industrial enterprises in both the short and long runs,indicating that the changes in the leverage ratio of industrial enterprises have a certain leading effect on macroeconomic fluctuations.(2)There is a dynamic process of two-way impact between quantitative monetary policy and the leverage ratio of industrial enterprises,but the impact of quantitative monetary policy changes on the leverage ratio of industrial enterprises is smaller than the impact of changes in the leverage ratio of industrial enterprises on quantitative monetary policy,indicating that although the transmission channel of quantitative mone-tary policy on the leverage ratio of industrial enterprises still exists,its effect is weakening.(3)Heteroge-neity analysis shows that there are differences in the interaction effect between quantitative monetary pol-icy and the leverage ratio of industrial enterprises and the self-strengthening effect of the leverage ratio of industrial enterprises under different conditions of industry category,ownership nature and enterprise size.