数字经济影响农业碳排放的机理与实证

Impact Mechanism and Empirical Research of Digital Economy on Agricultural Carbon Emissions

在“双碳”目标下,数字经济已经成为我国碳减排的重要途径。基于2013-2022年的面板数据,分析了数字经济对农业碳排放的影响及传导机制。实证结果表明:(1)数字经济发展有利于农业碳减排。数字经济发展对于农业碳排放具有显著的负向作用,且它的农业碳排放效应存在明显的区域差异。(2)存在规模中介效应和金融中介效应。数字经济通过提升农业规模化与农业金融服务推动农业碳减排。(3)数字经济对农业碳排放的影响存在双门槛效应。区域第一产业占比越高,数字经济对农业碳减排的作用也越强。鉴于此,建议加强数字基础设施建设,提升农业数字化水平;缩小区域“数字鸿沟”,增强农业数字要素流通;因地制宜发展数字农业,探索数字农业发展新模式。

In the context of the “dual carbon” goal,the digital economy has become an important means for China to achieve carbon emission reduction.Based on panel data from 2013 to 2022,this paper empirically analyzes the impact of digital economy on agricultural carbon emissions and its transmission mechanism.The empirical results show that:(1) The digital economy is conducive to the realization of agricultural carbon emission reduction.The development of digital economy has a significant negative effect on agricultural carbon emissions,and there is significant regional heterogeneity of digital economy on agricultural carbon emissions.(2) There is an intermediary effect of scale and financial intermediation.The digital economy plays an intermediary role in agricultural carbon emission reduction by improving large-scale agricultural production and agricultural financial services.(3) With the change of regional industrial structure,the impact of digital economy on agricultural carbon emissions has a double threshold effect.The higher the proportion of regional primary industry output value,the stronger the role of the digital economy in reducing agricultural carbon emissions.Based on the conclusions of the study,the following suggestions are put forward:strengthening the construction of digital infrastructure and improving the level of agricultural digitalization;narrowing the regional “digital divide” and enhancing the circulation of digital elements in agriculture;developing digital agriculture according to local conditions,and exploring new models for the development of digital agriculture.