政策如何塑造大众?基于最近三十年国际政策反馈研究的元分析

How Do Policies Shape the Masses?A Meta-Analysis of International Policy Feedback Research over the Last Three Decades

自20世纪90年代以来,关注政策如何塑造政治的政策反馈研究逐步成为政策过程研究的重要子领域。尽管公共政策对大众政治态度和行为的影响受到广泛关注,但是现有研究发现大众反馈效应的程度及其方向存在显著差异。论文提出一项新的分析框架,指出大众反馈效应会随着政策类型、分析角度、福利状态、关注议题和国家等因素的变化而变化。对近30年来国际上110项实证研究中549个效应量进行元分析发现:在政策类型方面,分配型和建构型政策的平均效应量大于再分配型政策和管制型政策的平均效应量。在分析角度方面,相比“政策投入”,基于“政策参与”和“政策变迁”发现的反馈效应更突出。在福利状态方面,论文引入“负向偏误”理论揭示出福利削减会产生比福利增加更显著的非对称效应。在关注议题方面,分析结果未表明政策对个体政策态度、政治态度与政治参与的影响存在显著差异。而且,分析结果也未支持国家情境的影响。另外,论文重点总结了亟待推进的两个研究方向:以福利削减为主题和基于中国情境的研究。论文有助于增进学界对大众反馈效应及其影响因素的系统认知,深化对政策的政治效应的理解。

Since the 1990s,research into how policies shape politics,known as policy feedback studies,has progressively become a crucial subfield within policy process research.Although the impact of public policies on the political attitudes and behaviors of a populace has garnered extensive attention,existing studies reveal significant variances in the magnitude and direction of the mass feedback effects.This study introduces a new analytical framework,suggesting that the mass feedback effects vary according to policy type,analytical perspective,welfare state,focal issues,and national context.A meta-analysis of 549 effect sizes from 110 empirical studies conducted internationally over the past thirty years finds that distributive and constitutive policies have a larger average effect size than redistributive and regulatory policies.In terms of analytical perspectives,feedback effects identified through“policy participation”and“policy change”are more pronounced than those based on“policy input”.Regarding the welfare state,the study employs“negative bias”theory to reveal that cuts to welfare produce more significant asymmetric effects than welfare increases.In focal issues,the analysis does not show significant differences in the impact of policies on individual policy attitudes,political attitudes,or political participation.Moreover,the analysis does not support the influence of national context.Further,this study emphasizes two relatively under-researched areas:studies focusing on welfare cuts and those based on the Chinese context.This study enhances the academic community s systematic understanding of mass feedback effects and their influencing factors,thereby deepening the comprehension of policies political effects.