GDP核算改革何以影响地方财政支出?

How Does the Reform of GDP Accounting Affect the Fiscal Expenditure of Local Governments?

2015年,我国GDP核算改革明确将“财政八项支出”纳入GDP核算中。基于预算间断-均衡理论,以2008—2019年237个地级市作为研究样本,运用测量间断性变化的MAD方法和多组中断时间序列(ITS)模型,论文考察了GDP核算改革对我国地方财政支出的影响及其机制。因果关系识别的结果显示,受GDP核算改革的影响,2015年之后“财政八项支出”比重增长率的右尾概率呈现出“均衡—间断—均衡”的变化,符合间断-均衡理论提出的“突发间断”与“长期均衡”。作用机制的检验结果表明,“财政八项支出”间断性增长是GDP核算改革产生的冲击和“生产性支出偏向”这一既有的制度惯性综合作用的产物。研究表明,我国地方财政支出间断性增长的实质是地方政府利用GDP核算改革做大其GDP。国家虽然确立了新发展理念,但地方政府“唯GDP”导向的财政支出模式惯性并未得到根本扭转。为引导地方政府落实新发展理念,需要建立、完善相关的激励和约束机制。

In 2015,China s GDP accounting reform explicitly included“eight fiscal expenditures”in GDP accounting.Based on the Punctuated-Equilibrium theory and application of MAD method and the multi group interruption time series(ITS)model.This paper examines the impact of GDP accounting reform on local fiscal expenditure in China and its mechanism by taking 237 municipal governments from 2008 to 2019 as samples.The result of causality identification shows that through the influence of the GDP accounting reform,the right tail probability of the growth rate of the proportion of“eight fiscal expenditures”indicates a change of“equilibrium-punctuated-equilibrium”which conforms to the“sudden interruption”and“long-term equilibrium”proposed by the Punctuated-Equilibrium theory.The test of process mechanism discloses that the discontinuity of the“eight fiscal expenditures”is the outcome of the combined function of the shock caused by the GDP accounting reform and the existing institutional inertia of“productive bias”.According to the research findings,the essence of the“Punctuated-Equilibrium”growth of local fiscal expenditure is that local governments use GDP accounting reform to expand GDP.Although the central government has established the“New Development Concept”,the inertia of the local government s“GDP first”fiscal expenditure model has not been fundamentally reversed.In order to guide local governments to implement“New Development Concept”,it is necessary to establish and improve relevant incentive and constraint mechanisms.