严重交通违法行为与交通事故的关联模型研究

Relationship model of serious traffic violation and traffic accidents

以严重交通违法行为和交通事故为研究对象,收集并整理了2017—2019年的全国严重交通违法行为和2017一2018年的全国交通事故统计数据,通过规律分析和回归拟合等手段,从全国层面分析了严重交通违法行为和交通事故的时空发生规律;提出了违法事故比和单位差值增长率指标,用于描述严重交通违法行为的危害性;并按单位差值增长率指标将全国省级行政区划分为3组地区,建立了对应的严重交通违法行为与交通事故发生数量的定量模型;模型相关系数达到0.8以上,能够较好地解释二者之间的关联关系。结果表明:2017一2018年全国不同类型地区严重交通违法行为与交通事故发生数量的增长关系具有一定的差异性,且存在由第3类地区向第1类地区定向演化的规律,将为不同类型地区严重交通违法行为的精准管理和交通事故主动预防提供理论依据。

This article takes serious traffic violations and traffic accidents as the research object,collects and organizes the national serious traffic violations data from 2017 to 2019 and the national traffic accident statistics data from 2017 to 2018.Through regular analysis and regression fitting methods,it analyzes the temporal and spatial regularity of serious traffic violations and traffic accidents at the national level.According to the correlation between the two indexes,the rate of violations to accidents and the growth rate of unit difference were put forward,to describe the harmfulness of serious traffic violations.The national provincial administrative regions was divided into 3 groups of regions by unit difference growth rate of the ratio of violation to accident,and it established a corresponding quantitative model of serious traffic violations and traffic accidents.The correlation coefficient of the models is above 0.8,which can explain the relationship between the two indexes well.The results show that the growth relationship between the number of serious traffic violations and traffic accidents of different types of China from 2017 to 2018 has certain differences,and there is a law of directional evolution from category 3 region to category 1 region.It will provide a theoretical basis for the daily traffic management of serious traffic violations and accident active prevention.