2008-2022年赤峰市丙型病毒性肝炎发病的年龄、时期、队列趋势分析

Trends in age-,period-and cohort-specific incidence of hepatitis C in Chifeng City from 2008 to 2022

目的了解2008—2022年内蒙古自治区赤峰市丙型病毒性肝炎(丙肝)发病趋势,为制定丙肝防控措施提供依据。方法通过传染病信息报告管理系统收集2008—2022年赤峰市丙肝报告病例资料,计算年度变化百分比(APC)和平均年度变化百分比(AAPC)分析丙肝发病率的时间变化趋势,采用年龄-时期-队列模型分析年龄、时期和出生队列对丙肝发病率的影响。结果2008—2022年赤峰市丙肝年均报告发病率为59.13/10万;2008—2018年发病率呈上升趋势(APC=9.405%,P<0.05),2018—2022年发病率呈下降趋势(APC=-17.475%,P<0.05),但总体无明显变化趋势(AAPC=0.937%,P>0.05)。年龄-时期-队列模型分析结果显示,以40~44岁为对照,0~4岁和45~84岁丙肝发病风险高于对照组,40~79岁丙肝发病风险随着年龄增长呈上升趋势;以2008—2012年为对照,2008—2022年丙肝发病风险呈先上升后下降趋势,2013—2017年发病风险高于对照组,2018—2022年发病风险低于对照组;以1968—1972年出生队列为对照,丙肝发病风险呈先上升后下降趋势,1953—1977年出生队列的发病风险高于其他出生队列。结论2008—2022年赤峰市丙肝发病风险总体呈下降趋势,随着年龄增加发病风险递增,应加强老年人和高危出生队列的筛查和健康教育。

Objective To explore incidence trend of hepatitis C in Chifeng City,Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region from 2008 to 2022,so as to provide the basis for formulating prevention and control measures for hepatitis C.Methods Data of reported hepatitis C cases in Chifeng City from 2008 to 2022 was collected through the Infectious Disease Information Reporting Management System.Trends in incidence of hepatitis C were analyzed using annual percent change(APC)and average annual percent change(AAPC).Impact of age,period and birth cohort on the risk of developing hepatitis C were analyzed by an age-period-cohort model.Results The annual average reported incidence rate of hepatitis C in Chifeng City was 59.13/105 from 2008 to 2022.The incidence showed an upward trend from 2008 to 2018(APC=9.405%,P<0.05)and a downward trend from 2018 to 2022(APC=-17.475%,P<0.05),but the overall trend was not statistically significant(AAPC=0.937%,P>0.05).The age-period-cohort model analysis showed that the incidence risks of hepatitis C in the residents aged 0 to 4 years and 45 to 84 years were higher than those in the residents aged 40 to 44 years(the control group).The incidence risk of hepatitis C increased with age from 40 to 79 years.Compared with 2008-2012,the incidence risk of hepatitis C showed an increasing trend followed by a decline in 2008-2022.The incidence risk was higher in 2013-2017 and lower in 2018-2022 than in 2008-2012.The incidence risk of hepatitis C showed an increasing trend followed by a decreasing trend by using the birth cohort from 1968 to 1972 as the control.The birth cohort from 1953 to 1977 had a higher incidence risk of hepatitis C than other birth cohorts.Conclusions The overall incidence of hepatitis C in Chifeng City from 2008 to 2022 appeared a tendency towards a decline,and the incidence risk increased with age.Screening and health education for the elderly and high-risk birth cohorts should be strengthened.