“一带一路”沿线国交通基础设施条件对中国出口贸易的影响

Impacts of Transportation Infrastructure Conditions on China’s Export Trade along“The Belt and Road”

加强沿线各国道路联通和贸易畅通是“一带一路”倡议的重要内容,本文基于沿线65个国家1997—2016年的经验数据,将中国产品出口到进口国最优路线经过的国家数量作为权重,构建产品途经沿线国交通基础设施条件的加权值,并将其作为这条线路上沿线国交通基础设施条件的一个综合指标LT,实证分析“一带一路”沿线国交通基础设施条件对中国出口贸易的影响。研究发现LT的提升有利于中国出口贸易额的增加,LT和中国出口贸易之间存在倒“U”型关系;LT和地理距离的交乘项系数显著为负,说明贸易双方的地理距离会削弱沿线国交通基础设施条件对中国出口贸易的促进作用;此外进口国的经济体量越大,LT对中国出口贸易的促进作用也越大。

One important content in“The Belt and Road Initiative”is to strengthen road connectivities and trade flows along the participating countries.Based on the data of 65“The Belt and Road”countries from 1997 to 2016,this paper takes the number of countries along the best route as weights,through which China’s products are exported to each of the importing countries.It then builds the weights of transportation infrastructure conditions between China and the importing countries along the route.These weights are taken as a comprehensive index LT for the transportation infrastructure conditions along the route.An empirical analysis is conducted to the effects of transportation infrastructure conditions along“The Belt and Road”on China’s export trade.This study reveals that LT increase is beneficial to China’s export trade volume increase,displaying an inverted U-shaped relationship between LT and China’s export trade.The coefficient of the interaction term between LT and the geographical distance is significantly negative,indicating that the geographical distance between the two trade sides weakens the promotion effect of transport infrastructure conditions on export trade.In addition,as the economic volume in the importing country gets larger,LT’s promoting effect on China’s export trade becomes more significant.