企业职工基本养老保险制度渐进式全国统筹方案设计与收入再分配效应分析

Analysis to the Effects of the Gradual National Comprehensive Plan Design and Income Redistrubution on the Basic Pension Insurance System of Enterprise Employees

我国“十四五”规划提出要尽快实现企业职工养老保险制度全国统筹,为了响应政策号召,进一步提升政策的公平性,以15年为过渡期,设计渐进式全国统筹方案。建立养老保险精算模型,以“标准人”为例,根据全国除西藏以外的30个省份2020年面板数据预测2061年省级统筹和全国统筹下各省份的基础养老金水平。结果表明:全国统筹方案下,全国各收入阶层的基础养老金平均值上升,标准差、离散系数下降;中部、大部分西部地区的各收入阶层的基础养老金上升;东部、西部各有7个、3个省份为收入再分配贡献省份,中部所有地区为收入再分配获得省份;区域间、区域内的泰尔指数均下降。全国统筹方案对于中、西部地区和中、低收入群体体现出更多的资金倾斜,发挥了正向的收入再分配效应,但是牺牲了部分经济发达地区的基础养老金收益,在实施过程中需建立配套政策。

It is put forward in The Outline of the 14th Five-Year Plan that we realize the national comprehensive pension insurance for enterprise employees as soon as possible.This is to respond to this policy calling and futher promote policy fairness,with a 15-year transitional period to further enhance equity and to narrow the gap between the rich and the poor.Based on the 2020 panel data of 30 provinces in China except Tibet,this paper establishes an actuarial model of endowment insurance for a“normalized person”.It forecasts the basic pension level of different provinces under provincial and national coordination in 2061.Statistical results indicate that the average value of basic pension increases,while the standard deviation and the discrete coefficient decrease.The basic pension increases in the central and most western regions.Seven provinces in the east and three provinces in the west contribute to the wealth Redistribution,while all regions in Central China merely receive wealth Redistribution.Theil index falls both inter-and intra-regionally.The overall national co-ordination plan manifests a larger funding skew for central and western regions,as well as low-and middle-income communities,exerting a positive wealth redistribution effect.Yet,it comes at the expense of the basic pension benefits in some developed regions.Therefore,it is obligatory to establish and coordinate supporting policies in the pension implementation.