新市民与乡村振兴:增收减产的效应--基于319个城市的实证研究

New Citizens and Rural Revitalization:The Effect of Income Increase and Output Reduction--An Empirical Study Based on 319 Cities

改革开放后,我国大量农村农业人口进城,成为亦城亦乡双重身份的城市新市民,在推进乡村振兴战略中发挥着重要桥梁作用。拟选择2011—2020年中国城市发展数据实证探索新市民与乡村振兴的内在关系及影响机制,并着重分析了区域、时间及政策不同造成的异质性影响。研究发现,第一,新市民群体壮大对乡村振兴有利有弊,促进农民增收,使得农业减产,且都呈现出一定的先增强后弱化的倒U型关系。第二,新市民对乡村振兴增收减产的效应在东中西部区域呈现异质性,如增收效应在东中西部依次增强。第三,乡村振兴战略提出推进后,新市民对乡村振兴增收减产的效应有所改善,增收效应更强,减产效应减弱。乡村振兴战略成效逐步显现,摆脱增收减产的现实困境指日可待。因此,为更好地发挥新市民在乡村振兴战略中的潜在优势和力量,应多措并举,深化农村市场化改革、深入推进乡村振兴战略、深拓产业振兴思路,提升新市民返乡和参与乡村振兴的意愿;帮助新市民做好职业规划,加大对拟返乡新市民的职业教育等培训,让新市民群体再顺利化身为新型职业农民队伍,提升新市民推进乡村振兴的素质和能力。

After the reform and opening up,a large number of rural agricultural population in China went to the city and became new citizens with dual identity of citizens and villagers,which plays an important role in promoting the rural revitalization strategy.This paper intends to empirically explore the internal relationship and influencing mechanism between new citizens and rural revitalization by using the data of urban development in China from 2011 to 2020 and focuses on analyzing the heterogeneous impact caused by different regions,times,and policies.The research finds that firstly,the growth of new citizen population has both positive and negative effects on rural revitalization,which can increase farmers′income on one hand and reduce agricultural output on the other---both presenting an inverted U-shaped relationship of increasing first and weakening later.Secondly,the effect of increasing income and reducing production output for rural revitalization brought by new citizens exhibits heterogeneity across eastern,central,and western regions of the country,with the income-increasing effect becoming progressively stronger from eastern to central and to western regions.Thirdly,after the further progress of the rural revitalization strategy,the effect of increasing income and reducing production is improved,with the income increase effect becoming stronger,and the output reduction effect weaker.The effectiveness of the rural revitalization strategy is gradually emerging,and it is soon to get rid of the dilemma of income increase and output reduction.Therefore,in order to bring new citizens′advantages and strengths for the rural revitalization strategy into full play,multiple measures should be taken,including deepening rural market-oriented reform,further promoting the rural revitalization strategy,developing thoughts of industrial revitalization,and improving the willingness of new citizens to return to their hometowns and participate in the rural revitalization.It is also necessary to help new citizens develop occupational planning,and organize vocational education and training for new citizens who plan to return to the rural areas,so that the new citizens also become the new type of skilled farmers with improved the quality and ability,who play a greater role in helping rural revitalization.