基于PVAR模型的农业机械化与农民收入关系研究-以山东省16地市为例

Relationship Study between Agricultural Mechanization and Farmers'Income Based on PVAR Model A Case Study of 16 Cities in Shandong Province

基于山东省2000—2020年数据,运用PVAR模型基础上,采用脉冲响应函数、方差分解和Granger因果检验等方法对农业机械化与农民收入的关系进行了实证研究。结果表明,农业机械化水平能够有效地促进农民的工资性收入和经营性收入,有利于农民收入的增长,但其效应存在一定的时间滞后性;比较脉冲响应图像和方差分解的结果可得,农业机械化的发展对农民工资性收入的促进效应大于对农民经营性收入的效应。鉴于此,提出了因地制宜发挥农机补贴作用、加强农民技术教育培训等建议,以形成山东省农业机械化促进农民收入增长的良好互动关系。

Based on data of Shandong Province from 2000 to 2020,using PVAR model,impulse response function,variance decomposition,Granger causality test and other methods were used to conduct an empirical study on relationship with farmers'income.Results showed that agricultural mechanization could effectively promote farmers'wage income and operating income,which was conducive to growth of farmers'income,but its effect had a certain time lag.By comparing impulse response image and variance decomposition results,it showed that current development of agricultural mechanization in Shandong Province has a greater effect on farmers'wage income than on farmers'operating income.In view of this,some suggestions were put forward,such as giving play to role of agricultural machinery subsidies according to local conditions and strengthening farmers'technical education and training,in order to form a good interactive relationship between agricultural mechanization and farmers'income growth in Shandong Province.