机器人兴起对地区养老保险收入的影响

The Impact of the Rise of Robots on Regional Pension Revenues

论文首先利用上市公司数据考察了机器人兴起对企业养老保险缴费的影响,以探究地区养老保险基金收入变动的微观机理。事件研究证据表明,当公司机器人普及度出现重大上升之后,公司养老保险缴费数量呈现显著减少趋势;实证检验显示,机器人普及度上升1个分位导致公司养老保险缴费额减少约4%,主要原因在于机器人兴起导致公司雇佣和工资水平下降,低学历员工和生产部门员工受到的负面影响更大。随后,本文从省级层面实证检验机器人兴起对地区养老保险收入的影响,发现地区机器人普及度上升1个单位标准差,将使得所在地区城镇职工养老保险基金收入下降约10%,但对城乡居民养老保险基金收入没有显著影响。替代效应检验显示,机器人兴起导致城镇职工参保人数几乎同比例减少,意味着存在明显的替代效应;劳动力重新配置效应检验显示,低学历与生产部门员工的再就业在一定程度上缓解了负面影响。

The paper first uses data from listed companies to examine the impact of the rise of robots on firm pension contributions and explore the micro mechanism of changes in regional pension revenues.Event study evidence shows that when robot penetration in firms significantly increases,firms'pension contributions significantly decrease.Empirical tests show that a one-ventile increase in robot penetration leads to a decrease of about 4 percent in firms'pension contributions,mainly due to the rise of robots leading to a decrease in hiring and wage levels,with low-educated and production-sector employees experiencing a more significant negative impact.Subsequently,this paper empirically tests the impact of the rise of robots on regional pension revenues at the provincial level,finding that a one standard deviation increase in regional robot penetration will result in a decrease of about 10%in urban employee pension revenues,with no significant impact on the urban and rural resident pension revenues.The substitution effect test shows that the rise of robots leads to a proportional decrease in the number of employees insured,indicating an apparent substitution effect;the labor reallocation effect test shows that the reemployment of low-educated and production-sector employees has mitigated the negative impact.