草原生态补奖实施区农牧民生计韧性动态评价及障碍因子分析

Dynamic evaluation of livelihood resilience of farmers and herdsmen in the areas implementing grassland ecological compensation policy and analysis of the obstacle factors

基于实地调研获取的草原生态补奖实施区2016年至2022年三期共1084份农牧民生计微观数据,综合运用主客观赋权法、修正的耦合协调度模型与障碍度模型等方法,就农牧民生计韧性、生计韧性的耦合协调度以及生计韧性的障碍因子进行了动态分析。得出如下结论:1)研究期内禁牧区农牧民生计韧性呈现持续提升的趋势,草畜平衡区虽呈现“倒U型”变化趋势,但生计韧性始终高于禁牧区。2)研究期内两区域农牧民生计韧性的耦合协调度均处于由严重失调向中度失调的发展期,生计韧性三维度间的相互作用性较差。3)生计韧性不同指标层级障碍因子及排名虽存在时空差异,但障碍因子总体稳定。具体而言,一级指标中的缓冲能力,二级指标中的社会参与、获取知识与技能能力、知识与技能转化能力、金融资本,三级指标中的是否担任村干部、家庭是否有存款、家庭年教育支出、实际草地面积、工资性收入占比与劳动力外出务工人数占比始终是农牧民生计韧性提升的核心障碍要素。

Based on a total of 1084 micro-data of farmers'and herdsmen's livelihoods in the areas implementing the grassland ecological compensation policy from 2017 to 2023,the dynamic analysis on farmers'and herdsmen's livelihood resilience,coupling coordination degree of livelihood resilience and obstacle factors of livelihood resilience was conducted by comprehensive application of subjective and objective weighting method,modified coupling coordination degree model and obstacle degree model.The following conclusions were drawn:1)The livelihood resilience of farmers and herdsmen in the grazing prohibition areas showed a trend of continuous improvement during the study period.Although the livelihood resilience in area with grassland-livestock balance showed an"inverted U-shaped"trend,it was always higher than that in the grazing prohibition area.2)During the study period,the coupling coordination degree of livelihood resilience of farmers and herdsmen in the two regions was in the development period from severe to moderate imbalance,and the interaction between the three dimensions of livelihood resilience was poor.3)Although there were temporal and spatial differences in the barrier factors and rankings of different index levels for livelihood resilience,the barrier factors were generally stable.Specifically,the following indicators always were the core obstacles for improving the resilience of farmers and herdsmen's livelihoods:buffer capacity in the first level indicators,social participation,access to knowledge and skills,knowledge and skills transfer capacity,and financial capital in the second level indicators,whether they were village cadres,whether their families had savings,annual household education expenditure,actual grassland area,the proportion of wage income and the proportion of migrant workers in the third level indicators.