影响农户种植结构的组态分析:基于小农户和规模农户比较的视角

Configurations driving plantation structure of farmers:Comparison between smallholder and large-scale farmers

农户的种植结构对于国家的粮食安全至关重要。论文构建了包含内、外部因素的农户种植结构分析框架,基于672个农户数据,运用模糊集定性比较分析(fsQCA)探讨了农户种植粮食的驱动因素和多元路径。结果表明:1)单个要素并不构成农户粮食种植的必要条件,其种粮决策由内、外部多个因素共同决定。2)粮食利润对于大部分粮食种植户都是关键要素。3)小规模种粮户的组态特征:非机械化生产依然存在;部分农户存在资源错配,如得到改善,则能够增加种粮收益;由单纯依靠利润驱动型发展为综合利用资源优势、获取种粮利润型是小农户的典型发展路径。4)规模种粮户的组态特征:对于利润驱动型规模户而言,较大的地块或机械化非常重要,且二者存在替代关系;粮食补贴和机械化存在替代关系,前者可以作为收入补偿,后者则能提高生产效率;随着机械化和地块规模的改善,农户挖掘资源优势的内生动力更强,对外生动力的依赖性减小是规模户的典型发展路径。5)影响小农户和规模农户粮食种植的组态存在差别。小规模种粮户的驱动因素更为分化,他们更为重视粮食补贴;规模种粮户的驱动因素更加内生,他们更加重视通过优化资源配置,获得规模效益。以上研究结论有助于政策制定者有针对性地优化各种条件,形成驱动粮食种植的组态并推动组态间的转化,确保国家的粮食安全。

The plantation structure of farmers is critical to national food security.Because of the dynamic and complexity of the farmer's decision-making process,it is necessary to discuss the interaction between the farmers who own different conditions of the grain-planting.From the dimensions of internal and external factors,the framework for analysis of farmer's plantation structure is constructed,and the driving factors and multiple paths of farmer's grain-planting are analyzed by fuzzy set qualitative analysis(fsQCA).The results indicate that:1)Farmers'grain-planting decisions are jointly determined by internal and external factors.Individual condition does not constitute the necessary condition for grain-planting.2)Grain profit is a key factor for most farmers.3)The characteristics of configurations of small-scale grain growers include:there is still non-mechanized production;their income from grain planting will increase if the misallocation of resources can be improved;developing from profit-driven to obtaining grain growing profits by superior resources is a typical path for small-scale farmers.4)The characteristics of configurations of large-scale grain growers include:the conditions of large plot and mechanization are substitutable and important for profit-driven farmers;grain subsidy and mechanization can be substitute for each other;the typical development path for large-scale farmers is that the endogenous motivation is stronger,with less dependence on exogenous motivation.5)There are differences in the configurations of grain planting between small and large-scale farmers.Smaller-scale farmers are driven by more varies configurations and put more emphasis on subsidies,while the large-scale grain growers are driven more endogenously and pay more attention to obtaining economies of scale by optimizing resource allocation.These results are helpful for policy makers to optimize allocation of conditions to form configurations of grain planting and promote the transformation among different configurations,in order to ensure the food security of our country.