全球价值链贸易研究:现状和展望

Global Value Chains Trade Study:Latest Developments and Directions for Future Research

尽管近年来国内外对全球价值链贸易的研究逐渐丰富,但在数据库构建、核算方法和实证研究方面仍有进一步提升空间。为此,本文重点评述了近年来全球价值链贸易相关分解方法、核算框架与实证研究。通过对不同的核算方法进行区分和述评,本文归纳了全球价值链贸易分解中易混淆的相关概念,并就政策制定者关心的全球价值链参与的驱动因素和社会经济影响进行系统梳理。进一步地,为厘清中国近年来参与全球价值链的特征,本文基于相关测度方法提炼了四个典型事实,并探索性地提出“双循环”的三种测度方法。最后,本文指出全球价值链贸易研究的关键瓶颈,提出若干思考,以期为新发展格局背景下的全球价值链未来研究夯实基础。

While research on global value chain(GVC)trade is enriched in recent years,the improvement in database construction,accounting methods,and empirical studies still need to be improved.This paper focuses on recent studies'decomposition methods,accounting frameworks and empirical research about GVC trade,and summarizes concepts prone to confuse in decomposition by distinguishing different accounting methods.This paper also systematically reviews the driving factors and socio-economic impacts of GVC participation,addressing the concerns of policymakers.Additionally,to clarify the characteristics of China's recent involvement in GVC trade,the paper proposes four typical facts and explores three measurement approaches under a"dual circulation"development pattern.Finally,this paper identifies key bottlenecks in GVC trade research and presents future research directions,aiming to lay a foundation for future studies in the context of the new development paradigm.