中国省域共同富裕水平测度、时空分异与障碍因素

Level Measurement,Spatio-temporal Variation and Obstacle Factors of Common Prosperity in China at the Provincial Level

测度中国共同富裕发展水平并分析其时空分异特征与障碍因素,能够为扎实推动共同富裕提供量化支撑。文章从富裕程度、共享程度、可持续性3个维度构建了包含24个指标的中国共同富裕综合评价指标体系,采用纵横向拉开档次法测度2013—2021年中国共同富裕水平。同时,基于Dagum基尼系数及其分解方法、核密度估计以及莫兰指数对中国共同富裕时空分异特征进行分析。最后运用障碍度模型,诊断影响中国共同富裕水平提高的障碍因子。结果表明:(1)样本期内中国共同富裕水平稳步提高,总体呈现“东部>东北>中部>西部”及“南强北弱”的空间发展格局;以各维度中位数为划分标准,可将各省份划分为“全面领先型”“持续发展型”“可持续引领型”“富裕引领型”“共享引领型”及“相对滞后型”6种发展模式。(2)中国共同富裕水平整体差异不断缩小,不同地理分区共同富裕水平的动态演进特征差异较大。(3)全国、南方地区、北方地区存在“高—高”“低—低”的聚集式发展格局,且中国共同富裕水平具有较高的空间稳定性。(4)影响共同富裕水平提高的主要障碍因子涉及创新产出、法治环境、收入水平、分配结构、创新环境、生态保护及城市基础设施建设等诸多方面。

Measuring the development level of China's common prosperity and analyzing its spatio-temporal differentiation characteristics and obstacle factors can provide quantitative support for promoting common prosperity.This paper constructs a comprehensive evaluation index system of China's common prosperity,which contains 24 indicators,from three dimensions of richness,sharing degree and sustainability,and measures the common prosperity level of China from 2013 to 2021.Based on Dagum Gini coefficient decomposition,kernel density estimation and Moran index,this paper analyzes the spatiotemporal differentiation characteristics of China's common prosperity and uses the obstacle degree model to diagnose the obstacle factors that affect the improvement of common prosperity.The results show that:1)Common prosperity level increased steadily during the sample period,and shows uneven development pattern which is the highest in the eastern region of China,followed by the northeast China,the central region of China and the western region of China,respectively,stronger in the south of China than that in the north of China.Based on the median of each dimension,the provinces can be divided into six development types:comprehensive leading type,sustainable development type,sustainable leading type,prosperity leading type,sharing leading type and relative lag type.2)The overall difference of common prosperity level in China has been narrowing,and the dynamic evolution of common prosperity level has great difference in different geographical areas.3)At the national level,the southern region and the northern region,there is a pattern of"high-high"and"low-low"aggregation development,and the common prosperity level of China has a high spatial stability.4)The main obstacles affecting the improvement of common prosperity involve innovation output,legal environment,income level,distribution structure,innovative environment,ecological protection,urban infrastructure construction and many other aspects.