京津冀数字产品制造业的时空演化特征与经济效应

Spatiotemporal Evolutionary Characteristics and Economic Effects of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Digital Manufacturing Industry

文章利用2000—2021年京津冀地区工商企业注册大数据,运用反距离加权插值等方法探索了京津冀地区数字产品制造业的空间分布特征及演化趋势;同时,基于动态面板模型、空间计量模型,运用广义矩估计(GMM)方法实证检验了数字产品制造业发展对区县经济的影响及空间溢出效应。研究发现:(1)京津冀三地数字产品制造业的数量规模趋于均衡,津、冀两地数字产品制造业企业注册数量逐渐赶超北京,特别是河北沧州、邢台、保定3个城市初具规模;但津、冀两地数字产品制造业的比重远低于北京,三地间仍存在严重失衡。(2)实证结果表明数字产品制造业发展不仅能够促进当地经济增长,还对周边区县的经济发展有正向的空间溢出效应,但仅限于累计规模指标。短期内,数字产品制造业企业当年的进入率对于周边区县的经济发展产生明显的抑制作用;长期中,进入率指标的抑制作用消失,即随着规模的积累,数字产品制造业发展对周边区县的经济增长产生正向溢出。

Based on the data of industrial and commercial firm registration in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei from 2000 to 2021,this paper explores the spatial distribution characteristics and evolution trend of digital manufacturing industry using the inverse distance weighted interpolation method,and empirically tests the impact and spillover effect of digital manufacturing development on county economies by the means of dynamic panel model,spatial econometric model and generalized method of moments(GMM).It's found that:1)The scale of digital manufacturing gradually tended to be balanced in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei,the number of registered digital manufacturing firms in Tianjin and Hebei gradually exceeded that in Beijing,especially in Cangzhou,Xingtai and Baoding where the digital manufacturing had begun to take shape,the proportion of digital manufacturing in Tianjin and Hebei was still far lower than that in Beijing,but there were still serious imbalances between three regions.2)The empirical results show that the development of digital manufacturing can not only promote the local economic growth,but also has a positive spatial spillover effect on the surrounding counties'economic growth.However,this positive spillover effect is only limited to the scale proportion index.In the short term,the entry rate of digital manufacturing firms in the current year has a significant inhibitory effect on the economic development of the surrounding counties.In the long term,the inhibitory effect of the entry rate disappears,the share of digital manufacturing generates a positive spillover to the economic growth of the surrounding counties with the accumulation of scale.