中国城市群乡村振兴水平测度、区域分解及时空收敛性

Measurement,Regional Decomposition and Spatiotemporal Convergence of Rural Revitalization Level in Urban Agglomerations of China

文章基于2010—2022年中国地级及以上城市面板数据,依据乡村振兴战略内涵构建乡村振兴水平评价指标体系,采用熵值法测算十大城市群乡村振兴综合指数及各维度发展指数,并借助Dagum基尼系数、核密度估计、马尔科夫链及SDM模型考察了各城市群乡村振兴水平的差异来源与贡献、分布动态与演进趋势及空间β收敛性。研究发现:(1)各城市群整体乡村振兴发展水平不高,地区间呈现非均衡性特征。(2)各维度中生活富裕指数发展较好,治理有效指数发展缓慢。(3)区域间差异是城市群区域差异主要来源;各城市群区域间差异呈现逐步缩小态势,空间上极化现象较为严重,除珠三角城市群外,其余各城市群乡村振兴发展水平向上转移概率均小于向下转移概率。(4)全国乡村振兴存在绝对β收敛趋势,与绝对β收敛相比,研究期内条件β收敛速度有所放缓。据此,提出在提升城市群乡村振兴发展水平的同时,应注重城市群的协同发展。

Based on the panel data of prefecture-level cities from 2010 to 2022,this paper constructs a comprehensive evaluation index system of rural revitalization level according to the connotation of rural revitalization strategy,and uses the entropy method to measure the comprehensive index of rural revitalization level and development index of various dimensions of China's 10 major urban agglomerations.Based on Dagum Gini coefficient,kernel density estimation,Markov chain and SDM model,it investigates the sources and contributions of differences in rural revitalization level of urban agglomerations,and analyzes its distribution dynamics,evolution trend and spatialβconvergence.The results show that:1)The overall level of rural revitalization and development of urban agglomerations is not high,and the regional characteristics are not balanced.2)In each dimension,the index of living affluence develops well,while the index of effective governance develops slowly.3)Inter-regional differences are the main sources of regional differences in urban agglomerations.The regional differences among urban agglomerations show a gradually decreasing trend,and the spatial polarization phenomenon is more serious.Except for the Pearl River Delta urban agglomeration,the probability of upward transfer of rural revitalization development level in other urban agglomerations is smaller than the probability of downward transfer.4)There is a trend of absoluteβconvergence in rural revitalization in China.Compared with absoluteβconvergence,conditionalβconvergence slows a down trend during the study period.Therefore,it should improve the rural revitalization level of urban agglomerations,pay more attention to the coordinated development of urban agglomerations.