经济周期叠加、美国货币政策与中国的战略应对

Economic Cycle Overlay,US Monetary Policy and China's Strategic Response

2008年以来,世界各国深受全球金融危机、大国博弈、新冠疫情以及地缘冲突的影响,国际环境非常复杂。但即便如此,中国依然保持相对快速的增长势头。据世界银行研究报告显示,2013~2021年间中国对世界经济增长贡献了38.6%,年均增长率为6.6%,这一数字远高于2.6%的同期世界平均增速,也高于3.7%的发展中经济体平均增速。但与此同时,认为中国经济发展前景堪忧、全球供应链中断风险攀升、构建双循环新发展格局举步维艰的言论仍不在少数。特别是自2022年美国开启强有力的加息缩表周期,并多途径向各国转嫁风险以后,中国经济回升向好的压力递增,面临有效需求不足、风险隐患较多、外部环境不确定性上升等挑战。基于此,文章试图从全球经济周期变动中寻找发展规律,结合美国货币政策调整对世界经济的影响分析,识别中国下一轮发展所面临的机遇与挑战,进而提出应对建议,为2035年中国初步实现现代化强国目标提供思路借鉴。

Since 2008,countries around the world have been deeply affected by the global financial crisis,the game of great powers,the COVID-19 epidemic and geopolitical conflicts,and the international environment is very complex.However,even so,China still maintains a relatively rapid growth momentum.According to a research report by the World Bank,China contributed 38.6%to global economic growth from 2013 to 2021,with an average annual growth rate of 6.6%,which is much higher than the world average growth rate of 2.6%during the same period and also higher than the average growth rate of developing economies of 3.7%.However,at the same time,there are still many comments that believe that the prospects for China's economic development are worrying,the risk of global supply chain disruptions is increasing,and it is difficult to build a new development pattern of dual circulation.Especially since the United States launched a strong interest rate hike and balance sheet reduction policy in 2022,which has shifted risks to various countries through multiple channels,the pressure on China's economic recovery has increased,facing challenges such as insufficient effective demand,multiple risk hazards,and rising external environmental uncertainty.Based on this,this article attempts to find development patterns from the changes in the global economic cycle,analyze the impact of the US monetary policy adjustment on the world economy,identify the opportunities and challenges that China will face in the next round of development,and then propose corresponding suggestions,in order to provide ideas and reference for China to achieve its preliminary goal of becoming a modernized strong country by 2035.