基于随机参数logit的山区高速公路事故严重程度研究

Research on severity of mountain highway accidents based on random parameter logit model

为了探究平曲线、纵曲线、平纵组合线形对山区高速公路交通事故严重程度的影响,首先,统计分析某山区高速公路263 km路段的线形数据和该路段5年内发生的1870起事故,并将其分类;然后,根据调研数据的结构形式,建立随机参数logit模型,进而利用该模型研究组合线形对事故严重程度的影响。结果表明:曲线比例(ROC)、加权曲率(CW)、单元坡度差(ΔS_(2))等因素与仅财产损失事故增加相关,而坡长组合(CSL)与仅财产损失事故减少相关;加权曲率(CW=0.6~0.7)和连续上坡与轻伤事故的事故增加相关,加权曲率(CW=0.3~0.4)、单元坡度差(ΔS_(1))、曲线比例(ROC)等因素与轻伤事故减少相关;曲率变化率(VRC)、单元半径比(CRF,CRB)、弯坡组合(CSR)等因素与重伤或死亡事故增加相关,曲线比例(ROC)与重伤或死亡事故减少相关;组合线形对事故严重程度有着显著影响。

In order to investigate the influence of flat curve,longitudinal curve,and flat-long combination of line shapes on the severity of traffic accidents on mountain highways,firstly,the line shape data of a 263 km section of a mountain highway and the 1870 accidents occurring on the section in five years were statistically analyzed and classified.Then,according to the structural form of the research data,the stochastic parametric logit model was established,and then the model was utilized to study the effect of the combination of line shapes on the severity of accidents.The results show that:the factors of ratio of curve(ROC),weighted curvature(CW),and delta slope(ΔS_(2))are associated with an increase in property damage-only accidents,whereas the combination of slope lengths(CSL)is associated with a decrease in property damage-only accidents;the weighted curvature(CW=0.6-0.7)and continuous uphill slope are associated with an increase in accidents with minor injuries,and the factors of weighted curvature(CW=0.3-0.4),delta slope(ΔS_(1)),and ratio of curve(ROC)were associated with a decrease in accidents with minor injuries;the variation rate of curvature(VRC),contiguous radius of front and behind(CRF,CRB),and combination of slope and radius(CSR)were associated with an increase in accidents with serious injuries or fatalities,and the ratio of curve(ROC)was associated with a decrease in accidents with serious injuries or fatalities;and the combination of linear shapes had a significant effect on the severity of accidents.