2017—2022年合肥市水痘时空分布及空间聚集性分析

Temporal-spatial distribution and spatial aggregation of varicella in Hefei City,2017-2022

目的 了解2017—2022年合肥市水痘流行的时空分布特征,为防控水痘工作提供参考依据。方法 通过中国疾病预防控制信息系统收集2017—2022年合肥市水痘病例信息和人口资料;以乡镇(街道)为单位,运用Geo Da 1.18.0软件对各年水痘发病率进行空间自相关分析;运用SaTScan 10.0.2软件对2017—2022年水痘进行逐月时空扫描分析。结果 2017—2022年合肥市共计报告水痘病例37 295例,年均报告发病率为73.26/10万;每年水痘发病高峰期在11月至次年1月。除2019年外,2017—2022年水痘发病均呈显著的空间聚集性(P<0.05);局部空间自相关分析共发现23个高-高聚集区,主要集中于包河区、庐阳区、蜀山区等主城区内部分乡镇(街道)。2017—2022年内共扫描出6个高风险聚集区域,Ⅰ类聚集区由庐阳区、蜀山区、长丰县、肥西县共23个乡镇(街道)构成,均为主城区中人口相对聚集的乡镇(街道),聚集月份均为10月至次年2月,持续4~5个月不等。结论 2017—2022年合肥市水痘发病总体具有较高的时空聚集性,聚集范围主要集中在庐阳区、蜀山区、包河区等人口相对聚集的乡镇(街道),聚集时间主要在冬春之际,应加强对高风险聚集区域、高峰时段的水痘防治工作。

Objective To understand the temporal and spatial distribution characteristics of varicella epidemics in Hefei City from 2017 to 2022,and to provide a reference basis for varicella prevention and control.Methods The information and population data of varicella cases in Hefei City during 2017-2022 were collected through the China Information System for Disease Prevention and Control.Taking the town(street)as the unit,Geo Da 1.18.0 software was used to perform spatial autocorrelation analysis on the incidence rate of varicella in different years.SaTScan 10.0.2 software was employed to scan and analyze varicella from 2017 to 2022 month by month.Results A total of 37,295 cases of varicella were reported in Hefei City from 2017 to 2022,with the average annual reported incidence rate of 73.26/100,000.The peak incidence of varicella was from November to January of the following year.The incidence rate of varicella in 2017-2022 showed significant spatial clustering except in 2019(P<0.05).Local spatial autocorrelation analysis found that there were 23 high-high clustering areas,mainly concentrated in some towns(streets)in the main urban areas such as Baohe District,Luyang District and Shushan District.There were 6 high-risk clustering areas of varicella in Hefei City from 2017 to 2022.Class I clustering areas were composed of 23 towns(streets)in Luyang District,Shushan District,Changfeng County and Feixi County,all of which were towns(streets)with relatively concentrated population in the main areas of the city,and the gathering months were from October to February of the following year,lasting for about 4-5 months.Conclusion The overall incidence of varicella in Hefei City during 2017-2022 showed a high temporal and spatial clustering,and the clustering range was mainly concentrated in the towns(streets)where the population is relatively concentrated in Luyang District,Shushan District and Baohe District.The clustering time was mainly in winter and spring.Hence it is necessary to strengthen the prevention and control of varicella in the high-risk clustering areas and peak periods.