顾客至上:消费者在线投诉的基本面预测能力研究

Customer First:The Fundamental Prediction Ability of Consumer Online Complaints

随着数字经济时代的到来,数据要素成为这一新经济形态的核心引擎,催生了更多另类数据。作为一种典型的另类数据,消费者在线投诉信息对企业发展具有至关重要的影响。本文基于千万级别的消费者在线投诉数据,系统研究了消费者在线投诉的信息含量问题。研究发现:首先,消费者在线投诉数据含有与公司基本面相关的信息,对公司未来营业收入增长率具有良好的预测效果。其次,从不同类型的消费者在线投诉的预测能力来看,针对质量的“结果失败”投诉和企业无回应的投诉具有更强的基本面预测效果。再次,我们针对消费者在线投诉的预测能力开展了进一步讨论,发现消费者在线投诉具有行业溢出效应,对同行业其他企业同样具有一定的基本面预测能力;从预测窗口来看,具有一定的持续预测能力;从预测类型来看,对企业财务危机也具有较好的预测能力。此外,消费者在线投诉的基本面预测能力具有显著的异质性,在低信息透明度和消费者业务重要性更高的样本中更加显著。本文的研究结论对于监管机构、上市公司、专业投资者等相关主体具有重要的启发价值。

In the era of the digital economy,data elements have become the core engine of this new economic form,giving rise to more alternative data.As a typical alternative data,consumer online complaint information has a crucial impact on the development of enterprises.This study delves into the information content of consumer online complaints based on a dataset comprising over 10 million complaints.The results show that:first,the online complaint data of consumers contains information related to the company's fundamentals,which exhibits an excellent predictive effect on the company's future revenue growth rate.Second,among various consumer online complaints,those concerning"outcome failure"in quality and complaints that companies do not respond to have a more robust predictive effect on the companies'fundamentals.Third,we further discuss the predictive ability of consumer online complaints,pointing out that consumer online complaints have an industry spillover effect and have a specific predictive ability on the fundamentals of other companies in the same industry.From the perspective of the prediction window,these complaints demonstrate continuous predictive abilities over time.From the perspective of the prediction type,it also has great predictive ability for enterprise financial distress.In addition,the predictive ability of consumer online complaints on the company's fundamentals varies significantly,especially in samples with lower information transparency and higher importance to consumer business.These findings hold significant implications for regulators,enterprises,investors,and other stakeholders.